The Co-Intelligence Institute
Eugene, Oregon, USA
"Y2K, Experts and Citizens" (01/10/2000)
"We Don't Have To Stop Making A Difference" (01/04/2000)
"Y2K, Experts and Citizens"
Monday, January 10, 2000
I am still holding the tension, in my own mind and life, regarding what happened at the rollover. I haven't found any answers that really satisfy me. (I'm not fully comfortable even with the tantalizing argument that it was grace. Given the powerful, offhand destructiveness of our global economic engine, would a loving God intentionally help it slide through the rollover frictionlessly, further justifying its arrogance and pride, further reducing our ability to get it to reflect on its dark side and change it's ways? It seems to me that real Love from on high would have given us a serious bump in the road, with minimal death and suffering, but leaving us with a good whack on the head and broad public agreement that we'd better slow down and drive more carefully.)
As I wait and explore for clarity in this, I've been watching growing criticisms regarding the sloppy expertise of Y2K doomers and prep people. It fascinates me.
Of course, we _could_ dismiss this as the Monday Morning Quarterbacking: Hindsight is easy -- and weren't our efforts, after all, truly valiant and reasonable, given the intrisic uncertainty of it all? On the other hand, perhaps we should humbly accept such criticism: After all, so many of us were more technologically (and otherwise) ignorant and undisciplined than we could have been.
To me, both those alternatives focus our attention where it is always too ready to go -- to the straight and narrow path of our individual correctness or error -- while overlooking some mammoth issues lumbering around the tarpits on the other side of the meadow, all having to do with the nature of expertise in our collective lives, to wit:
a) EXPERTISE AND INTERCONNECTEDNESS: Most public problems -- and certainly Y2K -- are so interlinked and interdisciplinary in their causes and effects, that we might reasonably consult computer people, systems analysts, businesspeople, environmentalists, sociologists, economists, ethicists, etc., etc., etc.,.... So, in any given circumstance, we could ask: What sorts of expertise are needed? - while quietly wondering if there's any expertise that's NOT relevant...
b) EXPERTISE AND CITIZENSHIP: THE PERSONAL CHALLENGE: We tend to think of experts as people who answer questions and resolve issues. However, our experience is that experts (usually seen in the media, now frequently on the web) just raise more questions -- especially when they disagree with each other. When faced with competing experts on an important public issue (such as Y2K), what's a citizen to do?
Sometimes we just shut up, and stop engaging. Activists like Helen Caldicott call that a cop-out: After all, they say, we are THE experts on our own lives, our own values, our own needs and understandings and we can jolly well ground ourselves in those things and speak out strongly from there. We don't have to understand the intricacies of MX missiles to know they're designed to blow up cities; if we don't want cities blown up, we can say that. Many of us go a bit farther, picking some experts who validate our personal opinions, and sticking with them through thick and thin, often becoming "very informed" on an issue (or at least on our pet expert's ideas and evidence regarding it). On the other hand, we may pick an expert or group whose values and motivations we trust, and let them form our opinion, since we feel no pressing reason to doubt them. Some of us ground our ideas in the ideas of a few opinion leaders, but then venture off every now and then into someone else's territory where our thinking gets complexified and nuanced, if not thoroughly confused. Very few of us do anywhere near the organized, detailed research across the spectrum of disciplines and opinions that would be needed to be called "truly informed" on any issue.
In this Y2K movement, I've seen us use our diverse online and local networks to inform each other from many perspectives. But no one would call that mutual education rigorous! And we usually shared at least SOME blind spots, which it might be interesting to understand better...
c) EXPERTISE AND CITIZENSHIP: THE CHALLENGE TO DEMOCRACY: We democratic citizens are captains of the ship of state, right? We are supposed to make the decisions that affect our lives, right?
Well, things have gotten a bit complicated lately, a bit out of hand.... Aside from the oft-bemoaned take-over of government by wealthy interests and corporations, would we even know what to do with the government if we DID control it? When you consider the complexity of ANY issue (from youth violence to Y2K), it seems to NECESSARILY involve lots of experts and special interest groups battling on the mountaintops while we citizens swarm around the base trying to see what's going on or going fishing. This creates a crisis for democracy: In a society as complex as ours can we even actually HAVE a democracy -- a political order in which we citizens have an effective voice in the decisions that affect our lives? Really?
Looked at another way, the question itself gets pretty complicated, i.e.,: What is the proper role of expertise in a society that is supposed to be run by citizens -- especially when that society is so complex that EVERY issue requires multiple threads of expertise to understand -- and particularly when that society is so speedy, infoglutted, and filled with distractions and urgencies that few citizens have time to understand ANYTHING very deeply, let alone carry on any real dialogues with each other about it -- and furthermore, when it is so hard to tell which experts to believe, since they so often disagree and so many are paid by vested interests or are fixated on old paradigms or solutions, or are oblivious to what experts in immediately related fields are saying?
In other words, "forget it!" -- right? Time to go back to (b) and either shut down entirely or just pick our favorite expert and be done with it!
I prefer to think outside that whole unproductive box. The solution to the problem is NOT individual; it is systemic. We need to acknowledge that our society is as different from 18th century America (when our Constitution was written) as 18th century America was from Neanderthal Europe. This doesn't mean we have to get rid of the democracy we built 200 years ago; it means that we need to change its form or it will simply disappear. In fact, I think we can safely say we are watching it disappear before our eyes right at this moment, eroding away by the dynamics of expertise, corporate control of media, lobbying, fragmentation, speed, no spaces for public dialogue....
Many ways to redesign our democracy for the 21st Century are described on my website at http://www.co-intelligence.org/CIPol_Index.html .
However, the innovation that I think best handles this problem of expertise is the establishment of citizen consensus councils of the sort done in Denmark several times a year and piloted once successfully in the US (see http://www.co-intelligence.org/S-ordinaryfolksLOKA.html ). A demographically representative (i.e., diverse!) group of citizens are convened as a panel and educated about a technical issue: They read reports and interview experts from across that issue's spectrum of expert opinion. When these ordinary citizens have all their questions answered (or have gained sufficient insight into why certain answers won't be forthcoming), they are facilitated to a consensus statement of recommendations for the government and press regarding how that technology should be dealt with in their country. Since the government convenes these citizen panels, it listens to their recommendations -- and the mass population hears about them in the media and talks about their findings: After all, here are citizen-experts -- people just like them -- who they can trust!
This approach to handling complex issues allows a sensible division of roles: Experts provide understanding of the dynamics, facts and stakes involved; citizens provide the values, every-day issues, and common sense. The experts are "on tap" to the citizens who, once they're educated, create the policy recommendations. To me all this makes eminent sense. Does it make sense to you? Does it make sense to spread the word?
(Or maybe we should wait a bit longer before telling anyone or doing anything about this. We might startle folks who woke up one morning to find their democracy actually working...)
d) TECHNICAL EXPERTISE AND THE CURVE OF Y2K: Finally, can we say anything about the various experts we've had in our "Y2K movement," now that we know that the rollover was basically uneventful (except for all the dancing and fireworks)? Of course, there were people who knew a lot LESS about the problem than we did, who predicted that "nothing would happen." But I'm not about to trade my hard-won knowledge that turned out to be wrong for their ignorant obliviousness that, by chance or grace, turned out to be right. The question is not whose ignorance was right, but who's insight was right.
So, quite specifically, we might ask: Among all those competing experts from before the rollover -- the people who knew A LOT about Y2K -- are there any who have all along promoted well-reasoned, believable rationales for a problem-free rollover? What are they saying now about what lies ahead? (The interesting question "Why didn't we listen to them rather than to all the others?" is a subset of the previous issues a-c. The fact is, we ordinary folks never have dependable means to decide who is right until after the fact -- unless we have something like a citizen's technology panel....)
Now, I openly admit that I don't frequent the technical listserves and websites and chat rooms. So my ability to answer this question is limited. However, my regular email traffic has exposed me to one interesting nominee for "Y2K expert who got it right so far" who we can use, just as a case in point here -- Dale W. Way, Y2K Chair for The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) <email@example.com>. For months he has been posting long and complicated pieces on various forums that, because they weren't taken up by others on the forums, and because I was always pressed for time and had to struggle to understand, I didn't pay much attention to. But now that some of his well-reasoned predictions have come true, a few people are digging out his old stuff and reposting it and trying to get other Y2K technical experts to address his issues. I've decided to join their ranks. I've appended below one of Way's more novice-readable pieces, which he posted right after the rollover (thanks: firstname.lastname@example.org). But first I'm going to try the impossible: to summarize for lay folks some of what I think are his most salient points for the rollover. (I'll probably mess up, and anyone's free to correct me. I am encouraged by a quote from my friend Marianne Morgan: "It is always best to do a thing wrong the first time." So said Sir William Osler.)
Dale Way suggested that most Y2K problems would arise from math calculations that straddled the centuries. This means that programs that looked forward would have problems before the rollover; programs that operated in present time (e.g., clocks) would have problems at the rollover; and programs that looked backwards would have problems after the rollover. Some programs combine these functions, making them vulnerable both before and after rollover.
He also noted that the longer the period of time included in the calculations typical of that system, the more vulnerable it would be to problems. In other words, if a typical calculation involves times that are 10 seconds apart, then the window of vulnerability in a forward-looking system would be from 11:59:50pm until midnight New Years Eve; after that, you'd be home free, because all the dates in later calculations would be on the far side of the rollover. However, if the calculations involved a 30-year period looking both forward and backwards, problems could crop up for years on either side of the rollover.
Way identifies four kinds of system: 1) physical control system infrastructure (power grids, toxics controls, water systems) 2) on-line transaction systems (ATMs, check and credit card processing) 3) support systems (that automatically detect faults, schedule maintenance, order spare parts) 4) administrative and accounting systems (for purchasing, invoicing, personnel, payroll).
He notes that this list is in descending order of vulnerability and ease of fixing. The physical control systems tend to be more integrated, robust software/hardware combinations with coherent tasks; are better engineered and stress-tested, and therefore better understood, and usually have redundancies built in; are so clearly vital that they get lots of management attention; and tend to operate with very tiny (seconds to hours) time-windows. Therefore they are less vulnerable to Y2K glitches which, if they occur, are relatively easy to find and fix.
At the other extreme, the administrative and accounting systems are usually extremely large, complex, repeatedly modified software programs with broad windows of vulnerability (weeks, months or years) -- containing and linked to a vast variety of heterogeneous technologies and data sources which no one really understands, maintains or tests, with little redundancy or management attention -- whose data output is used by other applications all over the enterprise. Therefore, these complex systems are extremely vulnerable to Y2K glitches which, when they occur, will be very messy and iffy to find and fix.
On-line transaction systems and support systems fall in between the other two in vulnerability and fixability.
Given his analysis, he predicted that the rollover was only really special for systems with short time-windows (i.e., real-time systems, such as physical control systems and on-line transactions). Since the vital infrastructure systems were also the most resilient (low vulnerability, easy to fix), he was quite sure they wouldn't go down, at least in any significant way.
His last pre-rollover report on Dec 31, 1999 gave this summary:
"Physical control systems and other primary production systems are not at much risk and not for long, while administrative and accounting systems in all industries are at great risk for a long time. Support systems are in the middle, but closer to production systems at the lower risk end. If we are to have major damage to the economy and system infrastructure it will come from administrative and accounting systems and those dependent on them. This will have long-term impacts on the economy, but the shape of those is hard to decipher at this point. There is still much we can do by way of adaptation to mitigate such failures, but if they persist anyway, we are in serious trouble."
What's next? His January 2 report (below) is entitled: "The Fat Lady Has Not Yet Sung." For him, it was easier to predict the rollover than what happens next, and for good reason. We've moved from the simpler, easy to remediate systems, to the endlessly complex, vulnerable and difficult to repair systems.
I would tend to say this is an expert with some hot expertise. But, then again, how would I know? All of Dale Way's stuff COULD just be a sensible explanation for the facts I'm fixated on. Closer examination by some other insider expert with a broader vision could show those explanations to be techno-fantasy, unconnected to some other set of Actual Key Dynamics. As a non-expert, I am trapped in my ignorance, unwilling to dedicate my next months to understanding the intricacies, unable to find any Guarantees, urgently needing SOMETHING to stand on, to act from...
Where is the forum where such interesting perspectives like this can be explored for their gifts and limitations, where the associated egos and fixed ideas and blind spots can be stripped away so that whatever real knowledge exists can be sorted out and arrayed with the other good knowledge around, so that we can all make some effective sense of what's going on? Of course, science is supposed to do that, and we have science. The Internet is supposed to do that and we have the Internet. The fact that I even have to ask the question shows that the systems we have for dealing with expertise ARE NOT ADEQUATE FOR ORDINARY CITIZENS.
And if we don't have the capacity, as a society, to translate expertise into knowledge useable by citizens, then what kind of democracy do we have, anyway?
I can't solve any of this personally. I can offer a tiny corner of a solution, just for us Y2K folks, and not terribly adequate, but it's something. Here's my suggestion:
If you are a technical expert, feel free to send me a cogent, NOVICE-READABLE commentary on Dale Way's ideas -- or your own -- if you honestly feel you have something that could move us ahead here. Write "Tech Comment" in the subject line. If what you write makes sense to me (and I know I'm setting myself up here to get in trouble! - but I do have to protect my list subscribers), I will forward it to my list with "TECH COMMENT" in the subject line so that those not interested in such things can just push the delete key.
If you think Tom Atlee is arrogant or unqualified to provide such a service, I couldn't agree with you more. If you offer me a better forum elsewhere I will (with exultant joy) pass the baton in that direction and tell my list where to find it. I never wanted to get this deep in this subject, anyway. It just seemed to need handling.
After all, I'm just another well-intentioned novice when it comes to all this tech stuff.... just another citizen praying for a better way than this to handle our collective affairs.... (Maybe someday expertise about how to build a better democracy will be as popular as expertise about computers....)
Subject: IEEE Y2K Chair: The Fat Lady Has Not Yet Sung
Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2000 19:10:19 -0800
From: "Dale W.Way"
To: Roleigh Martin
You know from my writings over the years that the rollover was being overblown as the most significant aspect of Y2K, even being made synonymous with it by many. (Recall my critique of Ed Yourdon's essay " Y2K End Game" you kindly published on your site.) The "rolloveritis" that gripped many is understandable in that nothing works like a deadline in getting people's attention and action. The early alarm-sounders of Y2K used this, but did not let go of it when appropriate because they were too often in transmit mode and not enough in receive mode. And when they were in receive mode, they listened to themselves too much, with "did you hear!" rumors ricocheting all around the world. The media also went strongly with this dramatic focus for obvious reasons.
Then other people with no pretense to computer knowledge entered the game, often with other agendas lurking beneath the surface. They built platforms to stand on and decry all the horrible things that were POSSIBLE with "computer chips" being embedded everywhere. In the absence of real understanding of the multi-dimensional details (technological, historical, cultural and managerial) of the world of the physical control infrastructure, these misguided people did not bother to study and learn that it takes more than a computer chip (whatever that is) and a 00-year to make a Y2K error, let alone allow that error to build to a failure, let alone let that failure emerge into public visibility. The details have always shown that the PROBABLE in that world was much smaller and less threatening. This distinction was, to some extent by choice, beyond their understanding.
The root of the word "science" is "skei-" to cut, split, "to separate one thing from another," "to discern" (American Heritage Dictionary, 3rd Edition). The above people, whom I am painting with a broad brush not in every case justified, failed to discern the various dimensions of Y2K, one from another, and how those dimensions would combine into a more predictable reality. They too often lumped Y2K into one thing and attached their own hopes and fears to that monolithic notion. But there is another world that Y2K threatens that has gone undifferentiated by these people and much of the media as well. The Feds and other "powers that be" have not been so simple-minded. That is why you are seeing warnings that we are not out of the woods yet, that problems could still emerge in the near future. The reason is simple:
We are leaving the world of LOW intrinsic vulnerability and HIGH remediation capability: the physical control system infrastructure -- for one of HIGH intrinsic vulnerability and LOW remediation capability: the data and information processing infrastructure.
We are going from a world of engineering based on scientific principals to one of art or craft based on ever-changing business fashions (along with more stable, but still slowly changing accounting and other regulatory principals). We are going from one of lean, special-purpose technology tied tightly to the task it is to do -- to one of over-featured general-purpose technology adequate to many tasks it could be asked to do, but not particularly good at any one. We are going from a world of moderate size and limited interactive complexity -- to one of immense size and great interactive complexity. We are going from a world where most systems are very well understood -- to one where holistic understanding dims after one or two steps away from the element being examined at any one time. Where a "correct fix" here can bite over there, because the interdependencies were not understood and the testing infrastructure and time were inadequate to not only catch it and track it down, but to devise and retest a completely "safe" fix that would not bite somewhere else.
I do not know what is going to happen. There is still much human organizations can do to mitigate and ameliorate errors and failures that do occur. Much will be held within organizations and not spill out into any kind of public view. Such things are not necessarily "reportable" in the crisis-management sense of things. But to the extent they occur they will likely accumulate, to build up. If our collective ability to overcome them falls behind that occurrence rate, there will be disruption and damage, from processing slowdowns, to data loss or corruption, to serious system lockups. It will take a few months to really know.
The fat lady has not even walked on the stage yet.
Thank you for listening and posting this to your list.
Dale W. Way Chairman Year 2000 Technical Information Focus Group Technical Activities Board The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
For more Dale Way writings, <email@example.com> says "You can type IEEE on y2k on a search engine, www.google.com is the best I have found, and get most of what he has written."
"We Don't Have To Stop Making A Difference"
Tuesday, January 4, 2000
By Tom Atlee
I feel like the doctor whose patient has for months been fighting terminal lung cancer, with a rapidly growing and metastasizing tumor. I'm sitting at my desk looking at the latest X-rays and tests. There are no signs of cancer in either. I say to my patient, "I don't know what to make of it, but your cancer appears to be gone." My mind is wondering, "Is this a miracle? Did we get a mixup of records?" The patient laughs in my face and says, "I told you all your warnings about smoking were a bunch of bull!" -- and pulls out his cigarettes.
I just came back from sitting on the walking bridge near our house, watching the Willamette River flow west towards the ocean, its heavy water dark grey in the stormy evening. The whole day was sun then rain, bright then dark; the temperature rollercoastered between 60 and 40 degrees, up and down, up and down. How does one label the weather of such a day?
How does one describe the unfolding of Y2K? I recall Mary Ann Gallagher's prediction: "The one thing that's sure is that everyone will be surprised." I think, in the end, she will be proven right. The fulfillment of that prophecy is starting with us.
I have already read a number of notes from Y2K activists who are stunned or disillusioned, including several who are in identity crises or who have made sudden, stark decisions about who they are in the world, desperately trying to disown the caring, engaged work they did with Y2K to help their communities and society.
My own gut sensibilities were thrown into such confusion by the benign passing of the rollover around the world, that I understand these responses by so many Y2K activists. But my mind has always known that it didn't know what would happen -- that WE didn't know what would happen -- and I'd forced myself to say that for a whole year, even as my gut told me otherwise. I think we don't yet really GET IT what uncertainty is all about. Uncertainty means we don't know. Radical uncertainty means we CAN'T know. Y2K was and is a phenomenon filled with radical uncertainty. Our desire -- our compulsion -- to know, is now making us jump to the premature conclusion that Y2K is over, that it was a "nothing event," that our efforts were misguided, that we must eat crow.
Let us be particularly mindful at this moment. Let us not fall back into old patterns. Let us not lose the precious freedom we have gained, to think outside the box.
First of all -- and this is being widely recognized -- there are at least two Y2Ks -- the TimeBomb/WreckingBall Y2K and the Termite Y2K.
The TimeBomb/WreckingBall Y2K was supposed to do its dirty work at New Years Eve midnight, sweeping around the world leaving a swath of vivid new-millennial disruptions in its wake. We all watched the clock tick, the ball swing. The fact that so little happened is a miracle. Although I suspect that we'll find that more happened than met the public eye, the fact remains that the deep and broad disruptions so many of us expected did not happen.
But the dramatic Y2K is only half of Y2K. Let us not forget the more subtle Y2K, the one about "supply chains" and "cascading effects" and "the increasing viscosity of life" -- the Y2K that happens over time, the one that could even end up being "death from a million cuts". That's what I'm calling the Termite Y2K. Termites eat away inside the wall leaving only a surface apparency of sturdiness that doesn't need a wrecking ball to punch holes in it. This Termite Y2K has barely begun its work.
The problem with the Termite Y2K is that it lacks the clarity and drama of the TimeBomb/WreckingBall. It doesn't happen all at once, spectacularly turning the world into a pumpkin at the stroke of midnight. It may surface in the first week, but it may just as well wait for months or years as it worms its way through the system. And it is a misty and often hidden shapeshifter: frequently we won't know -- especially if we're not directly involved -- whether a particular problem derived from Y2K or not. The systems are complex; the motives for hiding Y2K problems are significant; the nature of Y2K, itself, is ambiguous (e.g., is the failure of a system put in place because of Y2K a "Y2K failure"?).
BIGGER THAN Y2K
I think it is good that the phrase "Y2K Crisis" has now been torn from our vocabulary by the unexpectedly benign rollover. After all, Y2K was only one aspect of our REAL AND INCREASING TECHNOLOGICAL VULNERABILITY which ranges from cyberterrorism to downed power lines, from nuclear power to genetic engineering. Instead of abandoning our positions we might expand our vision. Y2K is only the tip of an iceberg of systemic vulnerabilities. Preparedness is still an issue. Sustainability is still an issue. Democratic monitoring of technology is still an issue. The erosion of our rights and freedoms as a solution to terrorism is still an issue. We have momentum. Let us not throw it away.
As I wrote in a recent email: "The real issue ... is that our culture is becoming progressively less resilient and more vulnerable to serious disruptions, widespread suffering and even total collapse." Among the factors I believe play a role in this are (a) our addiction to profit, growth, speed, efficiency, etc., (b) our competitive assumptions, (c) our short-term thinking, and (d) our non-resilient dependence on technology, instead of nature, each other, and spirit.
"So whenever a technological breakdown causes disruption -- and it doesn't matter whether that breakdown was caused by Y2K, terrorism, violent weather, human error, computer viruses, or any other reason -- the resulting DISRUPTION was caused by our DEPENDENCE, by our lack of resilience. The fact that this dynamic is currently built into our society suggests that it would be wise to either (1) change the system to be more resilient and less dependent on technology or (2) decide that future disruptions are inevitable and put lots of attention on making households, organizations and communities more resilient with a constant high level of vigilance and preparedness."
There is no shortage of work to do, right in this territory we are already so familiar with.
SPIRIT AND Y2K
My guts tell me there is "no way" that there could be as few disruptions as there apparently were on the rollover. Normally I would expect that someone's hiding something, but the really bad disruptions could not be hidden.
What do we do with this "impossibility" that became reality?
Those who never thought there was a problem in the first place, of course, don't see anything odd about it at all. But few of them showed real understanding of systemic interconnectedness, resilience, or the underlying patterns of complexity that were fundamental to Y2K and are so powerfully descriptive of where we are and where we're going as a society. I simply can't throw out all those understandings, just because of an uneventful rollover.
So I find myself being drawn relentlessly toward the idea of "miracle." Although I have been, among other things, quite spiritual in my approach to Y2K, I have not been one to think that it could be handled by prayer and trust. A number of my friends, and folks on this list who I don't know personally, do have such an abiding religious faith. Some even sent around recruitment letters for worldwide prayers and meditations for the new millennium. I didn't forward these on, knowing that there were many people on the list who wouldn't like these invitations. However, as Y2K moved into its "endgame" stretch (the last few months of 1999), I found myself talking increasingly in terms of prayer. As the World War II GIs used to say, there are no non-believers in foxholes.
I am aware of some research on prayer, mostly in health (cf., Larry Dossey's HEALING WORDS). And I have personally experienced the ability of focused intention to create changes in the physical world. Whether this is a psychic phenomena, the response of a personal God, or a realignment of probability fields at the quantum level, there's definitely something going on there. But I haven't been able to come to terms with the implications of that in my personal life and activism.
Cynthia Beal says of the rollover, "That was Grace, folks." I have to admit, that theory explains the observed phenomena!
The next question is: What will we do with the reprieve we've been given? It is hard for me to believe this is just about saving us from our co-stupidity so we can go back to business-as-usual. And it's even harder for me to believe that if we do go back to business-as-usual, we will get off so lightly next time.
And there will be a next time. Of that I feel sure -- in both my gut and my mind.
This is a time for reflection -- not just about lessons learned, but about realignment.
The Y2K movement is one of the most remarkable phenomena in history, a spontaneous, widespread, self-organized movement based on a deep caring and the ability to rapidly share information and wisdom through the Internet. Networks and friendships were woven, understandings and agreements were hard-won. Let us not throw out the Y2K baby with the Y2K bathwater.
The paths ahead are filled with unprecedented dangers and opportunities, begging to be addressed with the same caring, connection and wisdom that we have exercised for more than a year. How might we walk those paths together?
PS: When I got a diagnosis of possible heart disease several years ago, I was highly motivated to rework my diet, to exercise, and to meditate and rest. After eight months of this regimen and more intensive tests on my heart, my doctors told me they couldn't find any sure evidence of a heart condition. They couldn't rule it out, but they had no absolute evidence. My disciplined program dissolved INSTANTLY, even though I knew it would save me from all sorts of other medical problems later. I've been struggling for years to get it back on track.
I believe that a failure to act until a crisis hits shows a lack of intelligence, a failure of our innate ability to recognize patterns in our lives and use those patterns to help us take appropriate action. Since it is abundantly clear that we still have real collective problems we could apply ourselves to in the post-Y2K world, I wonder if we can exercise the collective intelligence to sustain our efforts without the dramatic focus of Y2K.
I would be truly sad if we couldn't.
Personally, I sense what my friend Marianne Morgan wrote to me a few days ago, that "now the real work begins."
Tom Atlee * The Co-Intelligence Institute * Eugene, OR