Ed Yardeni, Ph. D.
Chief Global Economist and Investment Strategist
of Deutsche Bank Securities in New York

 

 

"I was wrong, but I am happy"
January 7, 2000

Last year, in my December 13 weekly comments, I wrote: "I still expect a recession next year. I am not rooting for this outcome. I wouldn't mind sacrificing it to the forecasting gods. I'll be very happy if Y2K turns out to be a noneventÉ.I'm skeptical, but I could be wrong." I was wrong, but I am happy that Y2K has been a nonevent. The IT community deserves most of the credit for the uneventful century date change. John Koskinen, the US government's Y2K man, was especially effective in coordinating the Y2K remediation process both in the United States and around the world. Looking back, I don't regret my efforts to raise awareness. Looking ahead, my outlook for 2000 and beyond is now available in the January 10, 2000 issue of my Global Econonomic Analysis titled "The Decade Ahead."

Ed Yardeni

 

"I Am Impressed"
January 4, 2000

http://www.yardeni.com/y2kreporter.asp

I am impressed and pleased by the smooth transition into 2000 so far. There have been no significant Y2K problems around the world, especially in the late starters. As a result, the risk of disruptions to global just-in-time supply chains, which has been my number one concern, is low now. Some systems might still experience malfunctions and failures in coming weeks. Nevertheless, I concede that I was wrong about a Y2K global downturn. I am changing the odds of a recession-vs-expansion from 70-30 to 30-70. The IT community deserves most of the credit for the uneventful century date change. John Koskinen, the US government's Y2K man, was especially effective in coordinating the Y2K remediation process both in the United States and around the world. Looking back, I don't regret my efforts to raise awareness. I believe that Y2K was a big problem. Hopefully, in the next few weeks we will find that it has been mostly fixed.

Ed Yardeni

Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
http://www.yardeni.com/

 

 

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