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NHNE Y2K Report 3
Sunday, November 22, 1998

 

"News,
Inspiration,
& Consumer Protection
for Spiritual Seekers"

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NHNE Y2K Report 3
Sunday, November 22, 1998

NHNE is also the force behind the wild2k Website:
http://www.wild2k.com/
"The Best of the Best of Y2K"

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THAT WHICH YOU DENY

"That which you deny becomes the focus of your life."

--- John McCain

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CONTENTS:

Y2K HEADLINES:

Y2K Paradox
Y2K SOS on 911
Y2K to Cost GE $550 Million
Chevron Won't Be Compliant
Lack of Y2K Staff Getting Severe
Mutual Life Squashes Bug
Millennium Bug to Bite on April Fool's Day
Supermarkets Planning for January 1, 2000
Euro Projects on Back Burner
Dubbo Taking No Chances
Users Urge Deadline for Code Fixes

Y2K RESOURCES:

Y2K Reality Coaching Seminars
Busy Woman Y2K Checklist
Books to Watch for

Y2K STORIES:

Essay: Jim Lord on Gary North
Senator Bennett Speaks Frankly
Y2Kaboom?
Time Dilation is Real!
Y2K Gauges
FAA Yanks New System from Chicago's O'Hare
Failure of Western Power Grid Unlikely
Is Y2K a National Emergency?
Green Beans & Y2K
Shelter is the Number One Survival Priority

THE LIGHTER SIDE OF Y2K:

An Interesting Dinner

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Y2K HEADLINES:

Y2K PARADOX
(Source: Christopher Parkes, FINANCIAL TIMES, 11/16/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

A recent CAP GEMINI survey of Y2K preparedness in the U.S. and Europe has turned up a puzzling result: "Those companies and organizations that have made efforts to fix the problem are the least confident that their attempts will succeed." For example, the confidence level of American firms, which had spent 61 percent of their projected Y2K costs, was 83 percent, while across the ocean, where European firms have spent less than half their Y2K budgets, 95 percent were confident of success. Geoff Unwin, Vice Chairman of Cap Gemini, thinks he has the explanation for the worrying paradox: "Once a company begins to tackle the millennium bomb, the scale of the problem becomes apparent and grows." The U.S. and Europe also disagree on the necessity of adopting measures to preserve business continuity after Dec. 31, 1999: some 98 percent of U.S. companies said they had made contingency arrangements, compared to only 60 percent in Europe. (JG)

Link: http://www.naplesnews.com/today/business/a132462c.htm

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Y2K SOS ON 911
(Source: Declan McCullagh, WIRED NEWS, 11/16/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

According to communications experts at a FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (FCC) public forum on Y2K and emergency communications in October, emergency networks could fall victim to looming Year 2000 problems if they're not debugged in time. Systems that handle incoming 911 phone calls rely on computers, some of which calculate dates and could be vulnerable to Y2K glitches. In particular, software that locates the origin of incoming calls and returns that information to operators, may be noncompliant. Operators may also have problems with the mobile radios they use to dispatch emergency calls. Moreover, bug-caused power outages must be anticipated. "Failure to make wireline, terrestrial wireless, and satellite systems Y2K-compliant could cause major disruptions in virtually every sector of the global economy," concluded FCC Chairman William Kennard.

Link: http://www.wired.com/news/news/politics/story/16290.html

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Y2K TO COST GE $550 MILLION
(Source: Erich Luening, CNET NEWS.COM, 11/17/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

GENERAL ELECTRIC's (GE) latest quarterly report filed with the SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (SEC) has revealed that it plans to spend $550 million on Y2K work, two-thirds of which will be spent by the end of 1998. This ranks in the top three of companies which have filed with the SEC. GE does not expect that unforeseen Year 2000 failures will have an adverse effect on its financial position, operations, or liquidity. Some other heavy spenders (in millions) are: AT&T, $900; GENERAL MOTORS, $560; BELL ATLANTIC, $300; CHEVRON, $200-$300; JOHNSON & JOHNSON, $250; COKE, $130-160; PEPSI, $130. (JG)

Link: http://www.news.com/News/Item/0,4,28732,00.html?st.ne.ni.lh

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CHEVRON WON'T BE COMPLIANT
(Sources: Y2KSUPPLY.COM, 11/14/98; HOT COCO NEWS, 11/7/98 via GARY NORTH'S Y2K LINKS AND FORUMS)

In a recent statement to the SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION, the oil giant CHEVRON has admitted: "Because of the scope of Chevron's operations,...it is impractical to seek to eliminate all potential Year 2000 problems before they arise." On the positive side: "The company is developing contingency plans, which it expects to complete by the end of the third quarter of 1999." On the negative side: "Contingency planning for Year 2000 issues is complicated by the possibility of multiple and simultaneous incidents, which could significantly impede efforts to respond to emergencies and resume normal business functions." So far Chevron has spent $40 million of its estimated $200 to $300 million Y2K repair cost. That leaves at least 80 percent of the repairs still remaining, not counting testing and implementation. (JG)

Link: http://www.hotcoco.com/news/business/businessstories/jfm06235.htm

Chevron's SEC filing: http://sec.yahoo.com/e/l/c/chv.html

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LACK OF Y2K STAFF GETTING SEVERE
(Source: COMPUTER WEEKLY, 11/12/98 via Y2KSUPPLY.COM)

As if the short time remaining wasn't enough of an obstacle for Y2K repairs, staff shortages are taking their toll as well. COMPUTER WEEKLY reports that "about a third of European companies will struggle to meet their IT needs over the next four years because of a shortage of skilled staff." To which Y2KSUPPLY.COM has the following reply: "The most striking part about this sentence is the 'over the next four years' part. Four years! How about the next 13 months? If these companies can't fix their Year 2000 problems by 2000, the following three years won't really matter much!" (JG)

Link:http://www.computerweekly.co.uk/cwarchive/news/19981112/cwcontainer.asp?name=c15.html

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MUTUAL LIFE SQUASHES BUG
(Michael Lewis, Financial Post, 11/11/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

Here is the answer for alarmists who say that not a single FORTUNE 1000 company has declared Y2K compliance: The MUTUAL LIFE INSURANCE CO. of Canada is claiming bragging rights as the first major insurer in the country to have repelled the millennium bug. "When the clocks strikes midnight on Dec. 31, 1999, computer systems at Mutual Life will keep on ticking," said Brian Gill, Vice-President of Information Systems. Mutual explains their achievement in part by the fact that they were among the first companies in Canada to act on Y2K. They entered the game early on "largely because insurers need to process data that passes the Year 2000 threshold." Canada's three other major mutual life insurance companies say they are all well on their way to Y2K compliance. But some property and casualty industry insurers -- expected to come through with protection for losses due to the Year 2000 -- have not fixed all their systems and are at risk of not completing their conversion projects on time, according to TRAC INSURANCE SERVICES LTD. (JG)

Link: http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost.asp?f=981111/2008229&s2=canadianbusiness

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MILLENNIUM BUG TO BITE ON APRIL FOOL'S DAY
(Source: Tod Mohamed, THE OTTAWA CITIZEN, 11/16/98 via GARY NORTH'S Y2K LINKS AND FORUMS)

Forget Jan. 1, 2000. To be prepared for the effects of the millennium bug, many Canadian government computers will have to be fixed and tested by April 1, 1999 -- the start of the next federal fiscal year. The TREASURY BOARD had set a deadline of June 1999 for the completion of testing, but June doesn't quite do the trick for computerized budget systems, which must be ready to cope with the glitch by April 1. "We don't anticipate there will be a problem," says Jim Bimson, Program Director for the Y2K project office at the TREASURY BOARD. However, should the government miss the April mark, the registration of departmental expenditures and the payment of government suppliers could be thrown into disarray. (JG)

Link: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/national/981116/2022629.html

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SUPERMARKETS PLANNING FOR JANUARY 1, 2000
(Source: THIS IS LONDON, 11/11/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

Britain's four biggest supermarket chains are planning to rent portable generators for New Years 2000 to make sure that the electricity continues to flow. Supermarket bosses fear the loss of millions of pounds worth of chilled and frozen stock if the millennium computer bug cuts off the power. Unfortunately, power plants for rent may not be so easy to find: orders are also flowing in from other sectors, and the generator-rental industry fears its stocks may be fully booked as early as December 1998. Rental rates are also expected to soar. (JG)

Link: http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/business_story.html?in_review_id=90290

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EURO PROJECTS ON BACK BURNER
(Source: Aileen Crowley, ZDNET NEWS/PC WEEK, 11/9/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

A spot check of top American IT executives at the SOCIETY FOR INFORMATION MANAGEMENT's (SIM) Seattle conference in October shows that many are still not making the euro a priority, even though the initial currency conversion is set to begin in two months. Many SIM attendees said the euro is taking a back seat to mission-critical projects required to meet the looming Year 2000 deadline. They plan to take full advantage of the three-year grace period that's geared toward helping Europe ease into the new currency. (JG)

Link: http://www.zdnet.com/pcweek/stories/news/0,4153,369493,00.html

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DUBBO TAKING NO CHANCES
(Source: John MacLeay, AUSTRALIAN, 11/10/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

When the New South Wale's electricity supplier, ADVANCE ENERGY, announced that they could not guarantee power in 2000 due to the millennium bug, the Australian town of Dubbo (pop. 38,000), 500km to the west of Sydney, quietly made contingency plans. They plan to rent seven generators to pump well water into the town's water supply network and another dozen to power the town's main sewage pumping stations. The city council plans to have the generators on hand a month before they are needed and will keep them for at least two months into the Year 2000. Dubbo's Year 2000 Project Manager, Mark Loaney, says Y2K preparedness will cost the council about $500,000 out of its yearly budget of $50 million. (JG)

Link: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/extras/007/4034890.htm

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USERS URGE DEADLINE FOR CODE FIXES
(Source: Christopher J. Dorobek, GOVERNMENT COMPUTER NEWS, 10/19/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

With roughly 13 months left to prepare systems for the Year 2000, some U.S. agencies are beginning to think about what was once the unthinkable: setting a cutoff for date code work, whether or not systems are fixed. The push is coming from users concerned about the confusion that could accompany last-minute changes to systems. Great Britain and Canada have already imposed such a moratorium. Their stop-work date is September 30, 1999, with the last three months set aside to test changes and rehearse contingency plans. (JG)

Link: http://www.gcn.com/gcn/1998/October19/1A.htm

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Y2K RESOURCES:

Y2K REALITY COACHING SEMINARS
(Source: Jim Lord, WESTERGAARD 2000, 11/18/98)

"It's time to move past the 'foxhole stage' of Y2K," is the simple idea behind a new series of seminars created by Jim Lord, Y2K analyst and founder of the educational foundation, Y2K THINKTANK. Cofounder, Patrick Hogue, adds, "The world will still be there when the sun comes up on January 1, 2000, so we're grabbing the problem by the horns and teaching people prosperity strategies for that new world."

Their Y2K Reality Coaching Seminars will cover basic survival issues such as food, water, energy and medicine, but also go far beyond. Seminar grads will be able to:

- Design a Y2K Preparedness Plan for their family.

- Organize a Y2K Preparedness Program that will provide for the well being of their community.

- Identify goods, services, assets, and investments that might substantially increase in value in the post-Y2K world.

- Create a world in which Y2K is fun.

The Y2K Reality Coaching Seminars are preceded by a three-hour workshop entitled "Y2K 101 - Social, Political and Economic Implications of the Year 2000 Computing Crisis" designed to help Y2K skeptics understand the problem and its solutions. There is no charge for the workshop.

Seminars are currently scheduled for Spokane, Washington, November 21 and Denver, Colorado, December 12. The cost of the full-day Y2K Reality Coaching Seminar is $300 ($500 per couple). For information or advanced registration call toll free (888) 440-8025. (JG)

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BUSY WOMAN Y2K CHECKLIST
(Source: Karen Anderson, Y2K WOMEN, 11/9/98)

Y2K WOMEN has just finished putting together "The Busy Woman's Y2K Home Preparedness Checklist" so you can go from room to room in your house and take an inventory of what you have and what you may need to get in order to prepare for the Year 2000. It is set up for one month, six months and a year or more. Creator Karen Anderson comments: "I've tried to list the essential things that would be important to have on hand....I pray that it won't be necessary but...it's better to be safe than sorry. As always, be encouraged. By helping each other, we will get through this together." (JG)

Link: http://www.y2kwomen.com/

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BOOKS TO WATCH FOR
(Source: Einiyah ben-Elyon, NHNE Y2K Update 4, 9/11/98; Michael Brownlee, COGENISIS JOURNAL)

According to visionary scientist Peter Russell, the greatest challenge facing humanity is not any particular social or technological upheaval, but change itself. In his new book "Waking Up in Time: Finding Inner Peace in Times of Accelerating Change," Russell offers a gripping account of the ever-increasing pace of change from the origins of life on this planet to present day. He predicts that the pace of life is set to continue accelerating until ultimately it reaches a time of unimaginably rapid change early in the next century. A "materialist mindset," as he calls it, is not only contributing to the accelerating destruction of the world around us; it is also stopping us from finding the inner peace and tranquillity that each of us seeks. The key to surviving the hurricane of change that lies ahead, requires in a very simple but profound shift in thinking. This is a grounded, coherent argument that shatters many of our cozy notions of the future, and replaces them with a vision that is far more exciting and significant than most of us have ever dared imagine. The book concludes by arguing that we are heading toward a moment of unimaginably rapid awakening -- what Teilhard de Chardin called the "Omega Point" of human evolution.

Another book to watch out for is "The Truth About the Millennium Bug: How Life As We Know It Will Come to an End - A Parable for Our Time." It comes to us from the good people at COGENISIS JOURNAL. Authors Shayla Roberts and Michael Brownlee tell us that they have written "Parable" from a transformational perspective, intending to move people from fear to creative action. "Our hope is that it will spark a grassroots revolutionary response," says Brownlee. (JG)

Link: http://www.cogenesis.com/y2k

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Y2K STORIES:

ESSAY: JIM LORD ON GARY NORTH
(Source: Jim Lord, 11/9/98)

[The following excerpts are from an article by Jim Lord about Gary North.]

Gary North...has done more to raise awareness of the Year 2000 Computing Crisis than any other Y2K maven. For "Y2K Maniacs," his website <www.garynorth.com> is one of the two or three "must visit daily" locations on the Internet. With the most incredible energy, Dr. North (Ph.D. History) finds everything written or said about Y2K every day, categorizes the information and links to the source. He doesn't stop there, however -- he comments, sometimes extensively, on virtually every single article.

North...is the leading spokesman of the "gloom and doom" crowd and his is the bleakest of visions. If you agree with him, a daily visit there will buttress your position. If you disagree, you will be constantly prodded to examine and clarify your thinking.

He is probably right in just about everything he says -- except for one thing: Dr. North believes there is no possibility of changing course. My belief is that...catastrophe can be avoided [using the following strategies]:

1. Unplug complex systems: The great danger to the nation's four regional electrical grids is that the automated control systems are extensively interconnected by computers which are, in turn, networked together using the telephone system....How do we prevent the ship from sinking? The answer is unbelievably simple: Just break up the four electrical grids into [several hundred] smaller ones. This notion of breaking up a complex, heavily interconnected system into many smaller, more resilient, less-capable components is an important concept that I think will be also employed across the technology spectrum [such as] in banking, telecommunications and in some large federal agencies.

2. Conduct "real" triage: Most organizations have...classified too many systems as mission critical.

3. Employ massive simplification: In many cases, we use very little of the functionality available in much of our technology....Simplification strategy entails identifying the handful of "really critical" things that must be done for the enterprise to survive and them implementing these with off-the-shelf packages requiring scant modification to fit critical organizational requirements.

4. Do things manually: Many critical, automated business functions can be accomplished manually if the transition process starts now.

5. Conserve like crazy: We can get by...with far less than we consume today including essential goods such as food, water, fuel, energy and healthcare.

6. Prepare for disaster: A very serious local ground swell of community preparedness activities is underway all across the country. It is becoming OK...to admit Y2K is real, it's serious, and immediate steps are necessary to get ready for what it might bring.

Do I expect to see the frenzied accumulation of essential goods? Without question....Will there be a run on the banks? Probably, and the sooner the better -- if we don't have a few small ones early, the big one later will be very scary, even fatal....Will the government blow this one? Count on it; reorganize your life based on that probability and move on.

My Tip for this Week: Read Gary North religiously...so you will clearly see what needs to be avoided. Work hard to change the course of the ship to a safer heading. Do this by telling others about Y2K and by preparing yourself and your community for disaster, just in case. (JG)

Link: http://y2ktimebomb.com/Tip/Lord/lord9845.htm

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SENATOR BENNETT SPEAKS FRANKLY
(Source: Steve Nichols, McLean, Virginia Stake, 10/98 via GARY NORTH'S Y2K LINKS & FORUMS)

In October, Senator Robert Bennett (R-Utah), Chairman of the SPECIAL SENATE COMMITTEE ON THE YEAR 2000 TECHNOLOGY PROBLEM spoke about Y2K to a meeting of Mormons in Virginia. The following comments are from copious notes taken by Steve Nichols, who attended the meeting:

"[Y2K] will be an unbelievably widespread problem that we each need to start preparing for right now. Anything that is controlled by a computer or a computer chip may malfunction in dangerous and unpredictable ways at the beginning of the Year 2000. Unfortunately, everything is controlled by a computer these days.

"A major complication of the Y2K problem is that it will be a problem world-wide. Senator Bennett said only five countries in the world [U.S., Canada, Great Britain, Singapore, and Holland] are doing anything significant to address the Y2K problem. This will cause huge economic upheaval in many countries.

"Senator Bennett was informed that the NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE has been refitting and testing its computers and thinks it will be able to continue trading in the Year 2000. However, the Senator expects most exchanges in foreign countries to be shut down. For this reason, he cautioned us about investing in foreign stocks. It is anticipated that the economies of some countries will be devastated for decades by the Y2K problem.

"Needless to say, after listening to Senator Bennett we are very concerned and are trying to get better prepared for this crisis. We hope this warning may help you do the same."

***

Senator Bennett left the group with the following suggestions:

1. Check with all your banks, brokerages, and other financial institutions as to their preparedness for the Year 2000. If they can't assure you that they will be able to continue to do business as usual, move your assets to a place that can.

2. Keep hard copies of your financial records.

3. Have a three-month's supply of everything you need (food, water, fuel) by December 1999.

4. Expect a recession in 2000 and plan your finances accordingly. Keep some cash on hand. (JG)

Link: http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/3059

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Y2KABOOM?
(Source: Declan McCullagh, WIRED NEWS, 11/12/98, thanks to Bruce Fraser; M.J. Zuckerman, USA TODAY, 11/13/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

America and Russia should shut down their nuclear arsenals rather than risk Armageddon because of Year 2000 glitches, warns military research group, BRITISH AMERICAN SECURITY INFORMATION COUNCIL (BASIC), in a recent report. Nuclear weapons systems are laced with embedded systems-controlling functions such as ballistics and sensors that have not been declared free from Y2K worries, the report says.

"There are two problems together that make up one big problem: The sorry state of the [Russian] program and the fact that they don't know information about it," says Michael Kraig, the report's author. "They're still committed to launch-on-warning and hair-trigger alert status. That, combined with the fact that their program is in such a sorry state, makes us worry."

Paul Warnke, BASIC's President concludes: "The only prudent course may be to de-alert those nuclear systems where date-related malfunctioning in associated command, control, and communications systems poses even a remote possibility of accidental launch." BASIC lobbies for international agreements restricting arms sales and promotes complete nuclear disarmament.

A CIA report from earlier this year revealed that China had 13 of its 18 long-range nuclear missiles targeted on the U.S., contradicting President Clinton's often-used phrase there are no nuclear missiles aimed at the U.S. China and Russia are both considered extremely ill-prepared for Y2K-related problems.

In an apparent response to the BASIC report, Marvin Langston, Pentagon Y2K Program Director, announced: "We're working with all the nuclear powers...to physically share people. Their people will sit in our control centers and our people in their control centers to keep the communications open." Deputy Secretary of Defense John Hamre added that plans should be in place early next year to establish "back channel" contacts with nations that deny having nuclear capability and others hostile toward the U.S.

"Up to 80 percent of all defense ministry systems could be affected," says Sergey Rogov, an adviser to the Russian Duma on Year 2000 issues. "Maybe the Year 2000 problem provides us with the impetus to go into the next century with an entirely different relationship of our two nuclear forces." (JG)

Link: http://www.wired.com/news/news/politics/story/16217.html

Link: http://www.usatoday.com/news/washdc/ncsfri01.htm

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TIME DILATION IS REAL!
(Source: Y2KSUPPLY.COM, 11/16/98)

COMPAQ has now confirmed that the "Crouch/Echlin effect" [as reported in Y2K REPORT 2] is real. The only way you can actually test whether your computer will be affected by it, is to roll your computer's clock ahead to 2000, then run TWO FULL WEEKS of testing and rebooting in order to check for date problems. To make matters worse, the Crouch/Echlin effect is unpredictable, which is far more difficult to track than an outright failure that occurs EVERY time.

The confirmation of this discovery creates several new variables that are important to the understanding about Y2K:

- We don't know as much about it as we thought.

- The skeptics who argued that this problem didn't exist were wrong.

- Desktop PCs, a category of computers thought to be relatively immune to Year 2000 problems, are now known to be vulnerable.

- If time dilation can pounce on us this late in the game, might there be other unknown effects still lurking out there? (JG)

Link: http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Computech/Issues/hsmith9845.htm

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Y2K GAUGES
(Source: Y2KSUPPLY.COM, 11/16/98)

Here is a status report of the U.S. with respect to Y2K, according to Y2KSUPPLY.COM:

- Likelihood of a major economic depression: 65 percent

- Level of Y2K awareness: 50 to 80 percent

- Food shipment delays: 8-24 weeks

- Current shortages: Water filters, oil lamps, solar panels, dehydrated foods, non-hybrid seeds

- Furthest behind: Government services, electric utilities, military, healthcare, food industry, telecommunications

- Furthest ahead: Banking

- Very afraid of Y2K: 7 percent of people

- Heading for hills: 8 percent of people

- Buying supplies: 59 percent of people

- Pulling out some cash: 62 percent of people

- Pulling out ALL cash: 20 percent of people

- Worst prepared regions: Asia, Eastern Europe, South America, Africa

- Worst prepared countries: China, Russia

Sources for this data include polls, news articles, and interviews. (JG)

Link: http://www.y2ksupply.com

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FAA YANKS NEW SYSTEM FROM CHICAGO'S O'HARE
(Source: CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 11/12/98; CHICAGO SUN TIMES, 11/12/98, both via YEAR 2000 INFORMATION CENTER)

The FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION (FAA) has yanked their "new" software control system at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport and reverted to the old, non-Y2K-compliant system it was supposed to replace.

As a result of their fast-disappearing timeline to get these systems renovated for the Year 2000, they had installed the new radar control software at five major airports without going through sufficient testing to remove all the bugs. Then planes started disappearing off the radar screens, altitude and speed information was being lost, and air traffic controllers were having to alert pilots to take evasive action to avoid mid-air collisions. The NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS UNION (NATCA) was incensed and complained loudly. The pressure apparently got through to the FAA who decided to pull the faulty software from the Chicago airport. The FAA continues to run the new software system in New York, Denver and Southern California.

It was only a few weeks ago that the FAA called the new system "certified as safe" and claimed there was "no danger to the public." On September 30 of this year, the federal agency had claimed they were "99 percent finished," assuring the public that there would be no glitches, no risks, and all planes would still be in the air on January 1, 2000.

NATCA is not impressed with FAA contingency plans either: "Upon review of all information, testimonies and guidance available and having scrutinized contingency plans, guides and orders produced thus far, and in consideration of the benchmarks set forth by the agencies internal failures as described, NATCA perceives the overall condition of the National Airspace System to be catastrophic, and clearly threatens the economic, social and strategic health of this nation."

One of the most oft-used phrases by Y2K skeptics is, "Planes won't fall from the sky on January 1, 2000." They may be right for the wrong reasons: It now seems likely that the combination of faulty FAA software, non-compliant airports, suspected embedded systems, an angry pilots union, and insurance companies unwilling to cover the flights will combine to ground of ALL commercial airlines. (JG)

Link: http://chicagotribune.com/version1/article/0,1575,SAV-9810290173,00.html

Link: http://www.suntimes.com/output/news/faa14i.html

Link: http://home.natca.org/natca/publicsafety/faay2k.html

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FAILURE OF WESTERN POWER GRID UNLIKELY
(Source: AP/OREGONIAN, 11/16/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)

The WASHINGTON WATER POWER COMPANY (WWPC) and the BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION (BPA) say that Y2K-related power failures within their jurisdictions are unlikely. The unique challenge of Y2K, says Brian Furumasu, one of BPA's Y2K project managers, is reinforcing a system that routinely handles random breakdowns to withstand the potential failure of several components simultaneously. BPA intends to reduce dependence on automation during the hours just before and after New Year's Eve 1999 and maintain extra generating reserves. The end result is that January 1, 2000 "might be more reliable than a normal day," Furumasu says.

And here is some surprising news from WWPC: the bulk of it's generating plants are already operating in the 21st century. Jeff Brune, the company's Y2K Manager, explains that 9 of their 12 plants were pushed past Jan. 1, 2000, for testing, and then left there because they "saw no reason to bring them back."

Brune also points out that power companies in the West have two advantages over those in other U.S. regions:

- The power grid is almost totally isolated from those serving the rest of the country.

- Operators can watch what occurs in the East and still have a few hours to prepare for similar problems. (JG)

Link: http://flash.oregonlive.com/cgi-bin/or_nview.pl?/home1/wire/AP/Stream-
Parsed/OREGON_NEWS/o1042_PM_WA--Y2K-Electricity

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IS Y2K A NATIONAL EMERGENCY?
(Source: Y2KSUPPLY.COM, 11/18/98, Jim Lord, WESTERGAARD YEAR 2000)

In a recent report from the SUBCOMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT MANAGEMENT, INFORMATION AND TECHNOLOGY, Congressman Steven Horn made the following statement: "It is now clear that a large number of Federal computing systems will simply not be prepared for January 2000. At the same time, the utilities industry, the financial services industry, the telecommunications industry, vital modes of transportation, and other indispensable industrial sectors are all at risk. It is time for the President to declare that the Year 2000 Problem is a National Priority. If sufficient progress is not made by an intermediate deadline, he may even need to escalate the Year 2000 Problem to a National Emergency."

Is this actually possible in the U.S.? Apparently so, according to Y2K analyst, Jim Lord. The current, in-force Executive Order (EO) governing the subject is EO 12656, "Assignment of Emergency Preparedness Responsibilities." EO 12656 defines a "national security emergency" as "any occurrence, including...technological emergency...that seriously degrades or seriously threatens the national security of the U.S." Lord observes, "This statement seems to clearly indicate the President could use Y2K (should it cause civil disorder or widespread infrastructure failures, for example) to justify the declaration of a national emergency."

So what could the President do upon declaring a state of emergency? EO 12656 "provides for" control of private automobiles, mass transit, and other transportation systems, and directs the President to "develop national plans" controlling medical services, water, telecommunications, and even "civilian work force resources."

Is the U.S. already secretly preparing for the possibility of martial law in a similar fashion to Canada's "Operation Abacus"? Lord thinks so, and laments: "It seems that the government believes, if we know the truth, we will crash the banking system and the stock market, and then burn down the cities....The best way to prevent these things from happening is to let people act rationally on the basis of knowledge, rather than irrationally based on suspicion and rumor."

Y2KSUPPLY.COM takes a completely different view of armed troops in the streets: "This is not as radical as it might sound. Mayors of the largest cities will likely ask the President to deploy troops there in order to suppress potential outbreaks of looting and violence. An even larger and more important role will be the 'rescuing' of people affected by the Y2K problems, especially if the power goes out. It will then be the military's job to move these people to warm shelters, distribute food and other supplies, and basically function like an expanded RED CROSS." Y2KSUPPLY.COM offer the following rules for behavior when you're around armed soldiers: Thank them for their help, and never run as if you are guilty of something. (JG)

Link: http://y2ktimebomb.com/Tip/Lord/lord9846.htm Link: http://www.y2ksupply.com/

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GREEN BEANS & Y2K
(Source: Rev. Dacia Reid, UUY2K)

While it is true that the extensiveness of our interactions between computers has resulted in an efficient economy, it is mind boggling when you consider it in the context of Y2K concerns. Consider the farmer with green beans to sell:

- When his crop is ready, the farmer sells his beans on the bean market via computer.

- The buyer sends notice of the purchase and arranges pick up and delivery with a trucking firm via computer.

- The buyer sells to a processing center via computer.

- The center arranges pick-up and delivery via computer.

- At the processing center -- which is largely automated -- the beans are washed and boxed.

- The processing center sells to a wholesale distributor via computer.

- The wholesale distributor arranges transport via computer.

- The wholesaler sells the green beans, via computer, to a grocery chain, arranging delivery via computer.

- The grocery chain receives, via computer, the green bean requests from it's various stores and arranges, via computer, for delivery to specific stores.

- The produce manager, via computer, schedules the department's employees for work. One of them checks the computerized inventory and task lists and puts the green beans out for sale.

- You come along, grab a plastic bag (conveniently available at the store due to another whole string of computerized transactions) and fill the bag with green beans. After selecting a number of other items -- each available because of a myriad of computer interactions -- you make our way to the check-out counter where a human being assists a computer in tallying up your bill and the computer assists the human with making change.

- If the green beans had been canned or frozen there would be several other computer interactions for processing the beans and purchasing correct containers and labels.

So, if you are one of those people who believes that Y2K won't effect you because you don't use computers -- remember the humble green bean. (JG)

Link: http://www.uuy2k.org/uuy2k/default.htm

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SHELTER IS THE NUMBER ONE SURVIVAL PRIORITY
(Source: Susan Conniry, WESTERGAARD ONLINE SYSTEMS, 10/29/98 via YEAR 2000 INFORMATION CENTER)

Though many people are setting up communities and preparing for major breakdowns in power, telecommunications and transportation, most are not skilled enough to provide for themselves once the disaster occurs. Survivalist Susan Conniry, shares the following tips:

In any survival situation, natural disaster, man-made emergency or Y2K disruption, the priorities are always the same: shelter, water, fire, and food.

Hypothermia is by far the most common killer in a survival situation. Most humans can survive 4 days without water and 30 to 40 days without food. Without shelter you will die from exposure in minutes to hours depending on the temperature. Add in the wind chill factor and the rain and you are on dangerous ground even more rapidly.

The main function of any shelter is to provide warmth, protection and security....Clothing is your first line of defense....The layering system is recommended for cold-weather conditions. Three items to include in your personal wardrobe are "expedition weight" Capilene underwear, fleece outerwear, and a protective outer shell of waterproof material. A good pair of insulated boots is a must. Also, in extreme conditions consider fleece mittens, socks and a balaclava.

It is likely that a natural disaster and/or Y2K disruption will occur while you are home. Pick the smallest room in the house that is safe, dry and the least exposed to the cold. Then make a shelter within a shelter...based on creating dead air space. Once your shelter is built confine your activities to that area. This will conserve energy and cut down on drafts. Shut all doors and windows. Insulate windows by hanging drapes or blankets but be very conscious and careful about ventilation. And, NEVER bring flames or any combustibles of any kind into the shelter.

Shelter, water, fire and food are your needs. All the rest are wants. Knowledge of basic survival skills add one element to the preparation equation that is oftentimes left out: self-confidence. In order to weather a survival/emergency/disaster situation you must PROVE to yourself that you can. It is highly recommended that you take the time to participate in a hands-on survival course. There is nothing better than actually "doing it." (JG)

Link: http://y2ktimebomb.com/Computech/Management/sconn9843a.htm

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THE LIGHTER SIDE:

AN INTERESTING DINNER
(Source: Karen Lam, WESTERGAARD ONLINE SYSTEMS, 11/16/98)

Boris Yeltsin, Bill Clinton, and Bill Gates were invited to have dinner with God. During dinner, God told them, "I invited you to dinner, because I needed three important people to send my message out to all people: Tomorrow, I will destroy the Earth!"

Yeltsin immediately called together his cabinet and told them, "I have two really bad announcements to make: First, God really does exist, and second, tomorrow He will destroy the Earth."

Clinton called an emergency session of Congress and told them, "I have good news and bad news: The good new is that God does exist, and the bad news is that he will destroy the Earth tomorrow."

Bill Gates went back to MICROSOFT headquarters and told his people, "I have two fantastic announcements! First, I am one of the three most important people on Earth, and second, the Year 2000 Problem has been solved!" (JG)

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Copyright 1998 by NewHeavenNewEarth

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