NHNE Y2K Report 15
Sunday, February 21, 1999
"News,
Inspiration,
& Consumer Protection
for Spiritual Seekers"
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NHNE Y2K Report 15
Sunday, February 21, 1999
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http://www.wild2k.com/
"The Best of the Best of Y2K"
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A NEW SPECIES IS AWAKENING
"The life force will resist 'the disease called Man' by bringing a higher
form of life onto the planet -- a form which will recognize the laws
governing nature and live in accordance with them. The human race as
we know it, in all its combative, divisive, exploitative, self-centered
inhumanity-to-man, will go the way of the dinosaur. The widespread signs
of world unrest and cultural collapse around us indicate that an historical
epoch, a world age, is ending.
"Simultaneously, a great awakening is going on around the globe. It
isn't merely a generation gap or a communications gap. A new species
is awakening to its cosmic calling and -- in the face of the threatening
dominant species -- is asserting its right to live. The planetwide uneasiness
and societal upheaval being seen today is fundamentally an expression
of people straddling old and new worlds as they try to find out what
species they belong to. The dominant species is ego-oriented, technology-mad
and unconsciously bent on self-destruction through its materialistic
addictions and their unforeseen effects on the biosphere. The emerging
species, on the other hand, is life-embracing. It seeks to live in harmony,
create a unified planetary culture founded on love and wisdom and, as
Native Americans say, walk in balance on the Earth Mother."
--- John White, from "The Meeting of Science & Spirit"
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CONTENTS:
Y2K HEADLINES:
White House Fears Y2K Panic
Y2K Top Concern in U.S. Government
Many Companies Giving Up on Y2K Testing
Plan for Three Days Without Basic Services
Y2K Fears Spark Search for Phone Alternatives
BT to Halt Non-Urgent Work In 2000 Run-Up
California Unprepared for Y2K
Alabama Computers Won't Be Ready for Y2K
Milwaukee Schools Ready to Serve as Shelters
NRC Petitioned to Require 60-Day Stockpile of Fuel
Potential Year 2000 Chaos In Italy
Congress Fixes Own Y2K Bug
BankAmerica Hires PR Company to Spin Y2K
PG&E Warns Customers of Possible Y2K Service Interruptions
Y2K May Be a Problem for a Million Telex Users
FROM THE EDITOR'S DESK:
Spin Wars
Y2K GLITCH WATCH:
Clinical Equipment Fails Y2K Tests Despite Vendor Guarantees
Y2K Fixes Spin Off New Bugs
Y2K STORIES:
Oil Supply Threatened
Y2K Compliance In German Nuclear Power Plants Doubtful
Still Sailing Into a Storm
Protecting Tax-Deferred Investments from Y2K
Lessons from the Euro Changeover
Dispelling the Railway Myth
Y2K RESOURCES:
Resilient Communities Videoconference, Part 2
A Seminar for Y2K Journalists
List of Noncompliant Products
THE LIGHTER SIDE OF Y2K:
Orders for Next Year's Volkswagen Beetle Sluggish
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Y2K HEADLINES:
WHITE HOUSE FEARS Y2K PANIC
(Source: Declan McCullagh, WIRED NEWS, 2/18/1999)
Fear of public overreaction to the Year 2000 problem is commanding an
increasing amount of attention from government and corporate officials.
At a closed-door meeting of the President's Y2K council in January,
members debated what advice agencies should give their workers. White
House officials fear that federal agencies which advise employees to
begin personal Y2K preparations could unduly alarm the public. Executives
and bureaucrats are torn between prudence and their desire to be frank
with employees -- though not necessarily the public -- a problem compounded
by uncertainty about Y2K's impact and what preparations are necessary.
A representative from the STATE DEPARTMENT cautioned against "double
standards," saying the agency as a rule doesn't withhold information
from the public that they have already given to their employees. The
Department plans to publish country-by-country travel advisories for
nations that have not adequately confronted Y2K. Meanwhile, Council
Chairman John Koskinen has entered into discussions with a public relations
firm to devise a media strategy designed to thwart overreactions to
Y2K, including the possibility of bank runs and stockpiling-sparked
shortages. (JG)
Link: http://www.wired.com/news/news/politics/story/17986.html
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Y2K TOP CONCERN IN U.S. GOVERNMENT
(Source: COMPUTER WEEKLY, 2/18/1999 via THE YEAR 2000 INFORMATION CENTER)
A survey by INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA (ITAA) of
chief information officers (CIO) working at U.S. government agencies
shows that their primary concern is the Year 2000 problem, closely followed
by the difficulties in recruiting key information technology (IT) staff.
The CIOs said that the resources being consumed by Y2K work are preventing
them from fulfilling demand for key IT applications and developing strategic
applications such as E-commerce and dealing effectively with security
issues. (JG)
Link: http://www.computerweekly.co.uk/cwarchive/daily/19990218/c
wcontainer.asp?name=C2.html
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MANY COMPANIES GIVING UP ON Y2K TESTING
(Source: Joseph McKendrick, MIDRANGE SYSTEMS, 2/9/1999 via Y2K NETWORK)
According to a recent survey by CAP GEMINI, ultra-tight deadlines are
leading half the companies U.S. and European not to test their Y2K-remediated
systems before they are put into production. Project timetables are
now so tight that a three-month slippage -- not uncommon for IT projects
-- would place a third of companies at risk, Cap Gemini concludes. In
the U.S. alone, $655 billion has already been allocated to Y2K, with
most of this money (59 percent) going toward staffing, 22 percent toward
software, 17 percent toward hardware, and two percent toward embedded
chips. Over the past six months, project cost estimates have risen by
20 percent. "As we approach the final, 1999 lap of this race against
time, there are three critical messages," says Geoff Unwin, Vice Chairman
of the Executive Board of Cap Gemini. "First, work must continue at
an unremitting pace. Second, organizations must prioritize to ensure
that, even if they cannot finish everything, they do complete work on
their business-critical systems. Third, organizations must develop business
continuity plans to cope with the very real danger that not everyone
will complete the race in time." (JG)
Link: http://www.midrangesystems.com/article.asp?ID=2599104608AM
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PLAN FOR THREE DAYS WITHOUT BASIC SERVICES
(Source: Bob Nunnally, MSNBC, 2/16/1999 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS
REPORTS)
State emergency management directors meeting recently with John Koskinen,
the nation's Y2K management expert, learned from him that while the
federal government thinks they will be ready for Y2K, there could be
problems on the local level. The emergency management officials returned
to their respective states warning that people could be scrambling for
basic services in the first few days of the Year 2000. For example,
Nancy Dragani, spokesperson for the EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY (EMA)
in Ohio, says the EMA there is anticipating sporadic outages and disruptions
across the state, but isn't expecting widespread catastrophic failures.
The EMA recommends that people prepare like they would if they were
expecting to be snowed in for a few days and stock up their cupboards
by Dec. 31. The EMA doesn't believe there's any reason to panic about
Y2K, but a full tank of gas, full cupboards and a few other precautions
would be a good way to start the new millennium anyway. (JG)
Link: http://www.msnbc.com/local/WCMH/86871.asp
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Y2K FEARS SPARK SEARCH FOR PHONE ALTERNATIVES
(Source: Bill Goodwin, COMPUTER WEEKLY NEWS, 2/18/ 1999 via SANGER'S
REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)
Multinationals are drawing up emergency plans to use satellite telephones
and short-wave radios to communicate with their overseas offices, as
fears grow that the Year 2000 problem will disrupt phone services in
parts of Africa, Asia and South America. Despite repeated requests,
phone companies in developing countries are failing to come forward
with satisfactory assurances that their networks will function properly
in the Year 2000. "When we do get statements, they are often bland and
don't give us the specific information we need." said Nick White, head
of technology and telecoms at UNILEVER, which is looking at using low
earth orbiting satellite networks, such as IRIDIUM, to communicate with
far-flung offices. CITIBANK has written to more than 60 overseas telecoms
companies but had only received replies from 18, according to Vice President
David Moore. REUTERS is investigating satellite, short-wave radio links
and ISDN lines as alternatives to its existing leased-line network.
(JG)
Link: http://www.computerweekly.co.uk/cwarchive/news/
19990218/cwcontainer.asp?name=C24.html
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BT TO HALT NON-URGENT WORK IN 2000 RUN-UP
(Source: COMPUTER WEEKLY, 2/18/1999 via THE YEAR 2000 INFORMATION CENTER)
BRITISH TELECOM (BT) has announced it will stop all non-emergency work
on its telephone systems and networks from November to mid-January to
ease the strain on its networks caused by a combination of millennium
celebrations and people making phone calls when their computer systems
unexpectedly fail. "We are concerned about how much more of a load we
can take before problems hit us," said Lizzie Beesley, Year 2000 Director.
BT is asking 10,000 staff to work or be on standby over the millennium
holidays as part of its Year 2000 contingency planning. (JG)
Link: http://www.computerweekly.co.uk/cwarchive/Xtra/19990218
/cwcontainer.asp?name=C26.html
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CALIFORNIA UNPREPARED FOR Y2K
(Source: Greg Lucas, SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE, 2/19/1999 via the Y2K
NETWORK)
According to state auditors, more than two-thirds of California's most
critical computer systems are not ready to handle the Year 2000 bug.
In all, 11 of 14 state agencies, which operate 20 of the government's
most important computer programs, have not finished testing their revamped
systems and half have yet to assess the threat posed to their operations
by date-sensitive embedded chips. Governor Gray Davis had made an earlier
announcement that 75 percent of the state's essential computer systems
were Y2K ready. Under an executive order issued by former Governor Pete
Wilson, the state's most important computer systems were to be bug-free
by December 31, 1998. California has so far spent $342 million on the
problem. What's particularly troubling for Auditor General Kurt Sjoberg
is that no single agency oversees Year 2000 preparedness of the state's
electric and telephone utilities. "However well any of us is converting
our computers over to the 2000 thing, they won't work if they have no
power." (JG)
Link: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/
archive/1999/02/19/MN60444.DTL
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ALABAMA COMPUTERS WON'T BE READY FOR Y2K
(Source: THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, 2/17/1999 via THE YEAR 2000 INFORMATION
CENTER)
In a speech to legislators, Alabama Finance Director Henry Mabry has
admitted that the job of updating state's computers to deal with the
arrival of the Year 2000 will not be completed in time. Mabry, who only
took over as finance director a month ago, criticized former Gov. Fob
James for the lack of preparation for the Year 2000 computer phenomenon.
"I think the James administration was not necessarily interested in
this particular issue," he said. Alabama has spent about $45 million
on the millennium bug problem. Mabry said the state needs to spend another
$65 million. Gov. Don Siegelman has demanded contingency plans from
all state agencies. (JG)
Link: http://flash.al.com/cgi-bin/al_nview.pl?/home1/wire/AP/Stream
Parsed/BAMA_NEWS/j8454_PM_AL--Y2K-Alabama
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MILWAUKEE SCHOOLS READY TO SERVE AS SHELTERS
(Source: Joe Williams, MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL, 2/18/1999 via THE
YEAR 2000 INFORMATION CENTER)
In anticipation of possible havoc triggered by the Y2K bug, the MILWAUKEE
PUBLIC SCHOOL BOARD (MPS) is prepared to open many of its schools as
emergency shelters if needed. Last month, the school board asked administrators
for a report on how the district has been preparing for Y2K. In the
recently-tabled report, the administrators emphasized that while that
they don't anticipate serious problems, they are taking the challenge
seriously. Of particular concern is that gas and electric utilities
will not be ready. The district intends to purchase power generators
and will spend an unspecified amount of money to improve communication
systems for administrators. "Community leaders must have the ability
to interact using fail-safe communication systems. This will enable
the mobilization of intervention strategies in a coordinated manner
if needed," says the report. In addition, key administrators may be
asked to be on duty during the millennium transition. (JG)
Link: http://www.jsonline.com/news/0218shelt.asp
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NRC PETITIONED TO REQUIRE 60-DAY STOCKPILE OF FUEL
(Source: Y2KNEWSWIRE, 2/16/1999 via Y2KNEWSWIRE)
The NUCLEAR INFORMATION AND RESOURCE SERVICE (NIRS) has petitioned the
NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (NRC) to shore up contingency requirements
for nuclear power plants. Among the recommendations is the requirement
that all nuclear power plants have backup diesel generators and a 60-day
supply of fuel. The petition also calls for nuclear power plants to
provide alternate means of back-up power sufficient to ensure safety,
such as solar power panels, wind turbines, hydroelectric power, and
biomass power. (JG)
Text of petition: http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?d
bname=1999_register&docid=99-1594-filed
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POTENTIAL YEAR 2000 CHAOS IN ITALY
(Sources: BBC NEWS, 2/16/1999; Y2KNEWSWIRE, 2/17/1999)
Italy is expecting a flood of 25 million Catholic pilgrims in the Year
2000 to celebrate the 2,000th anniversary of the birth of Christ. The
influx of visitors is expected to put a tremendous strain on the country's
infrastructure: transportation, food services, electricity, medical
facilities. Given the potential of Y2K to disrupt the party, the Italian
government has created a panel of unpaid experts to promote and enforce
Y2K compliance, but has given them no support staff to carry out their
recommendations, no telephones, and their office is still under construction.
To help with the impending crisis, the head of Italy's Y2K committee,
Professor Ernesto Bettinelli of PADUA UNIVERSITY, has suggested that
the military's computer experts be conscripted into service to fix the
nation's Y2K problems. (JG)
Link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_279000/279929.stm
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CONGRESS FIXES OWN Y2K BUG
(Source: Declan McCullagh, Y2KCULTURE, 2/12/1999 via THE YEAR 2000 INFORMATION
CENTER)
When the House Inspector General recently announced that the current
payroll system for members of Congress must be replaced, the usually
sluggish legislators approved $770,000 for a new payroll computer with
uncharacteristic swiftness. Perhaps their motivation was that without
the new Y2K-compliant computer, they couldn't count on receiving their
$136,700 salaries after Oct. 1. -- the date when the federal government
enters its 2000 fiscal year. The new computer system is scheduled to
be up and running by the end of July. Congressional aides get paychecks
from a different system -- it's still not Y2K-OK. (JG)
Link: http://www.y2kculture.com/reality/19990212.congress.html
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BANKAMERICA HIRES PR COMPANY TO SPIN Y2K
(Source: Ken Elkins, THE BUSINESS JOURNAL (Charlotte, NC), 2/8/1999
via Y2KNEWSWIRE)
BANKAMERICA has hired national public relations company KETCHUM to help
convince customers that the worst won't happen on Jan. 1, 2000. Ketchum's
plan is to tell customers that BankAmerica is on schedule. "They've
been working on Y2K since 1995," says Carol Hassell, account leader
for the BankAmerica project. "They're committed that Year 2000 is going
to be a nonevent." The bank will likely publish brochures and craft
messages for customers that will be relayed in forums and information
sessions and media interviews. In a similar move, FIRST UNION BANK has
already sent letters to 100,000 of its major customers to convince them
that the bank is well along in compliance. (JG)
Link: http://www.amcity.com/charlotte/stories/1999/02/08/story8.html?h=y2k
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PG&E WARNS CUSTOMERS OF POSSIBLE Y2K SERVICE INTERRUPTIONS
(Source: SPOTLIGHT, 2/1999, thanks to John Steiner)
PACIFIC GAS AND ELECTRIC (PG&E), the major provider of electricity
and natural gas to central and northern California, has taken the extraordinary
step of warning its customers to prepare for possible major Y2K service
interruptions. Customers received the warning in a brochure included
with their February bills ("Spotlight" Volume 9 Number 2). Buried in
the lead article ("Meeting the Challenge of 2000") is this statement:
"We also encourage you to consider your special needs. Make your own
contingency plans in case communications, transportation, power or financial
services may be interrupted by Y2K. No one knows if or how long any
of these services might be affected, but being prepared helps in other
kinds of emergencies, too. Because of the complex ways that computers
and communications interact, and because we're dependent on other firms
and groups, we regret that we are not able to issue any Year 2000 guarantees.
But be assured that PG&E is taking strong measures to avoid service
interruptions due to Y2K." PG&E says they expect to have all essential
systems and equipment Y2K-ready by the end of the third quarter of 1999.
(JG)
Link: http://www.pge.com/whats_new/news/spotlight/february99/
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Y2K MAY BE A PROBLEM FOR A MILLION TELEX USERS
(Source: Sylvia Dennis, NEWSBYTES, 1/7/1999 via GARY NORTH'S Y2K LINKS
AND FORUMS)
Telex machines are still used by some large organizations because the
documents are considered legal in a court of law. Because of this, the
majority of the one million telex users today tend to be specialist
users in markets such as the banking and shipping industries, financial/trading
sectors, and governments. But recent research has shown that many telex
users have not yet arranged to have their telex systems adapted to cope
with the Year 2000 issue. Time is running out, and a major worldwide
campaign by telex specialists UNITEL and NETWORK TELEX is now under
way to inform telex users of the problem. (JG)
Unitel's website: http://www.unitel.nl
Link: http://www.cnnfn.com/digitaljam/newsbytes/124042.html
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FROM THE EDITOR'S DESK:
SPIN WARS
By James Gregory
Y2K analyst Larry Sanger recently posted the following comments on his
excellent Y2K news and analysis website: "Since about mid-January, I've
noticed a decline in the amount of hard-hitting...let-it-all-hang-out
reporting about Y2K; at the same time...I've noticed a rise in the amount
of high-level press releases saying that Company 'X' or Industry 'Y'
or Nation 'Z' will be just fine; these often accompany admonitions not
to panic." Given this alarming trend, Sanger has adopted the following
editorial policy for his REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS: "In the future,
we'd like to have as much substantial information as possible (as opposed
to mere opinion) [and] we will be including few and only the
most important/influential position statements on either side."
WESTERGAARD YEAR 2000 analyst Charlie Register agrees with Sanger's
position and adds, "Self-reporting is a license to 'put things in the
best light'....Reports may sound good, but...unless there is verification,
trust is slow in coming. From this, doubt and uncertainty flourish in
a community that is starved of any legitimate information that might
be useful in preparing to ride out any Y2K induced disruptions."
Fortunately, some news reports have become very energized over Y2K.
The BOSTON GLOBE, for example, recently ran the results of a survey
on local industry, government and business Y2K preparedness called "How
Prepared is the Region?" The survey consisted of four very direct questions:
1. What percentage of your mission-critical systems are ready?
2. Will your company be ready to operate by 1/1/2000: yes or no?
3. What is your target date for readiness?
4. Do you have a formal, documented contingency plan: yes or no?
Here are some of the responses to the Question 1 (percentage ready in
brackets): BOSTON EDISON (55 percent), BOSTON WATER & SEWAGE (90
percent), AT&T LONG DISTANCE (100 percent), BELL ATLANTIC (66 percent),
MERRILL LYNCH (95 percent), THE NEW ENGLAND MEDICAL CENTER (80 percent),
GILLETTE (90 percent), POLAROID (50 percent), and the State of Massachusetts
(70 percent). The Globe intends to revisit the same companies and agencies
later in the year to see what progress they have made towards 100 percent
compliance of mission critical systems.
NHNE applauds such bold initiatives -- widely-published statements put
pressure on government and industry to make accurate disclosures and
stand by their commitments. We too have been buried by a flood of Y2K
news reports and press releases that have very little content other
than bland reports, sugar-coated promises and idle speculation. We renew
our commitment to report on hard, verifiable news stories and useful
resources so our readership can be informed and prepared to confidently
handle whatever Y2K has in store. (Sources: Larry Sanger, SANGER'S REVIEW
OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS, 2/16/1999; Charlie Register, WESTERGAARD YEAR 2000,
2/16/1999) via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)
Link: http://y2ktimebomb.com/Media/creg9907.htm
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Y2K GLITCH WATCH:
CLINICAL EQUIPMENT FAILS Y2K TESTS DESPITE VENDOR GUARANTEES
(Source: Paul Brislen, YEAR 2000 NEW ZEALAND, 2/1/1999 via THE YEAR
2000 INFORMATION CENTER)
In a test of six intravenous pumps owned at TARANAKI HEALTH CARE CENTER
(TH) in New Zealand, four were found not to be compliant and would have
administered double doses of medication on Jan. 1, 2000. TH still has
eight more pumps to check. "We expect half of them fail as well," says
Andre Snoxall, Manager of TH's Information Systems. The most disturbing
aspect of this discovery is that Snoxall has a written statement from
the manufacturer assuring him that the devices are Y2K compliant.
Snoxall says he is also concerned about the infrastructure -- electricity,
water, waste disposal -- on the day itself. TH has back-up generators,
but there are pitfalls even there. "We ran them for a full day to test
them under load and discovered that they stopped running after three
hours." Now, Snoxall says, they are debating whether or not to hire
back-up generators for the back-up generators.
If there's one piece of advice that Snoxall would give Y2K managers,
it's this: "You've got to test. You can't take anybody's word for it.
Once you know, then it's not an issue -- you can replace it or put in
a procedure to deal with it." (JG)
Link: http://www.year2000.co.nz/y2kcw31.htm
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Y2K FIXES SPIN OFF NEW BUGS
(Source: James Coates, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 2/15/1999 via THE YEAR 2000
INFORMATION CENTER)
Computer experts are coming to realize that the very weapons they use
to fight the millennium bug are themselves buggy. "Bad fixes" are emerging
as a major source of concern as the world's computer programmers scramble
to unsnarl all the hardware and software built and programmed to keep
track of years by the last two digits only. The latest studies of the
bad fix problem by such research houses as CAP GEMINI, MATRIDIGM and
REASONING SYSTEMS have shown rates as high as 1,200 bad fixes per 100,000
lines of computer code repaired. "While this error rate is pretty close
to the error rate of regular programming projects," points out Y2K analyst
Yourdon, "it is quite serious because in the case of Y2K we have a fast-approaching
deadline to finish the fixes and get them right." There are lots of
ways to patch the software and fix the Y2K glitch -- but the fix itself
often inflicts other problems. Here are some examples:
- In January, Mica Hill and a group of partners developed a program
called "Shelter Harbor 2000" to let personal computer owners test their
systems for millennium bug problems. The bug fix software worked by
setting the computer's date forward beyond Jan. 1, 2000 and then examining
how the machine and its software handled the event. In the lab, the
software performed its task perfectly, creating a printed report showing
exactly how each machine handled the transition from the 20th Century
to the 21st. But when the product was first released on the market,
80 percent of the customers found that using the Y2K disk triggered
a virus called "Monkey V" that had been lurking in their machines waiting
for a trigger date to pass. Once the machine's clock was moved forward
to 2000, it assumed that the date had passed and locked up the infected
computers. Fortunately, once alerted, programmers were able to quickly
repair the problem.
- Programmers can hatch new bugs simply by making ordinary mistakes,
such as typing the wrong word for a command or ordering the software
to jump to the wrong routine. The FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION (FAA)
found this out the hard way in 1997 when its programmers missed large
numbers of flawed instructions while combing through the millions of
lines of software code in the ENHANCED TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (ETMS)
designed to spot major traffic bottlenecks. As a result, after the FAA's
software reported that the ETMS setup was fully fixed, it crashed during
the first test and a subsequent analysis found that 150,000 lines of
software had to be rewritten.
- Programmers write remedial software that works fine internally but
that is based on faulty assumptions. Such a bug is written into "Microsoft
Windows 98", which is supposed to automatically detect the start of
daylight-saving time and advance the computer's clock one hour. But
the software will fail to note daylight-saving in 2001 because the algorithm
for keeping dates in Windows 98 assumes that the changeover happens
on the first Sunday after the first Monday in April when, in fact, Sunday,
April 1, 2001, will mark daylight saving. This error was written into
Windows 98 as part of Microsoft's massive effort to make the operating
system Y2K compliant.
- Programmers sometimes fail to anticipate problems when one part of
the programs they fix interacts unexpectedly with other features in
the same system. The U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR encountered this sort
of bug in early January when a problem with a Y2K fix in the department's
Internet software caused it to publish the widely followed data for
the PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) one day earlier than it should have been
sent out.
Most industry observers agree that these cases are the tip of an iceberg
of bad fixes that either will be found and fixed quietly or will slop
through and cause problems when the millennium arrives. Richard Balough,
a Chicago attorney specializing in Y2K issues, noted that a large number
of consulting companies involved in fixing Y2K problems have stopped
guaranteeing their work out of concern that they can't catch all their
bad fixes quickly enough. Analysts at FORRESTER RESEARCH INC. have predicted
that the eleventh-hour shakedown to iron out bugs will be so extreme
that much of the traditional industry will grind to a standstill sometime
between July and September as companies and governmental bodies stop
creating new software and buying new equipment and work furiously to
make sure what they already have is ready for the deadline. (JG)
Link: http://chicagotribune.com/version1/article/0,1575,ART-23362,00.html
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Y2K STORIES:
OIL SUPPLY THREATENED
(Sources: Patrick Crow, David Knott & Anne Rhodes, DEJA NEWS/OIL
AND GAS JOURNAL ONLINE, 2/17/1999 via the Y2K NETWORK)
The U.S. imports about 50 percent of the oil it consumes, and the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve holds only about 60 days' worth of imports. The fact
that most oil-producing countries are months to years behind the U.S.
in identifying and correcting Y2K problems poses a direct threat to
U.S. oil imports, says John Warner Jr., Executive Vice-President of
SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORP. in McLean, Va. To protect national
interests, the U.S. government is planning policy changes to protect
companies working to fix the Y2K bug, and a U.S. coalition of about
90 large companies and trade organizations have drafted a legislative
proposal to forestall Y2K lawsuits. On a broader scale, the ORGANIZATION
FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT has established an electronic
data clearinghouse to help chemical producers prepare for and prevent
chemical accidents that could result from Y2K errors.
Noting that oil exports are the lifeblood of many nations, and, if interrupted,
their economies and governments may fail, Warner recommends that the
U.S. act to help other nations with the problem. Some of his suggestions
are:
- President Clinton should stress the urgency of the threat to other
countries and offer the services of key U.S. agencies to promote awareness.
- Establish an international Y2K knowledge-sharing program.
- Establish a national security Y2K loan fund of $3-5 billion to help
nations whose solution of Y2K problems is in the U.S. national interest.
(JG)
Link: http://www.ogjonline.com/ogjregis.html
------------
Y2K COMPLIANCE IN GERMAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS DOUBTFUL
(Source: Paul Nellen, translated from German by David Schrag, ZEITBOMBE-JAHR2000,
2/12/1999 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS)
Most nuclear power plants in Germany are seriously behind schedule in
their Y2K compliancy efforts, according to independent security testing
institution, TUV. There are five crucial steps to make nuclear reactors
Y2K-compliant:
1. Inventory/Analysis
2. Mission-critical repairs
3. Testing
4. Fine tuning
5. Back-up plan in case of an emergency shutdown
In July 1998, the GERMAN INSTITUTION FOR THE SECURITY OF NUCLEAR REACTORS
(GRS) sent a briefing to all nuclear reactors in the country "recommending"
for the first time that the millennium bug be considered in future checks
of a nuclear reactor's systems. According to German Y2K expert Prof.
Klaus Brunnstein, this starting date was "much too late" because testing
and repairing such complex systems require 24 to 36 months alone. "The
firms which own the nuclear power plants are barely in the inventory
phase. Besides the famous January 1, 2000 date, they also have to consider
many other dates, like September 9, 1999 -- many programs 'understand'
those four 9s as an order to shut down their operations." Then there
is the matter of whether there are even enough qualified specialists
available to accomplish the job. Concludes Prof. Brunnstein, "I don't
see how they will make it in time." (JG)
Link: http://www.zeitbombe-jahr2000.de/zebo.y2k/inh./y2k.cont./German_nucl_power_plant.html
------------
STILL SAILING INTO A STORM
(Source: Edward Yardeni, ZDY2K, 2/16/1999 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K
NEWS REPORTS)
According to Y2K analyst Ed Yardini, the Year 2000 Problem is a very
serious threat to the U.S. economy, and if the disruptions are significant
and widespread, then a global recession is likely. When he first began
studying the potential impact of Y2K during the summer of 1997, he concluded
that there was a 30 percent chance of a worldwide recession in the Year
2000. One year later, he raised the probability of a global recession
to 70 percent.
As of February 1999, Yardini still sees a 70 percent chance of a severe
global recession. While he is now less concerned about the readiness
of the U.S. government and is more optimistic about the electrical power
grid, air transportation, and banking, he is more worried about serious
disruptions to our global just-in-time manufacturing system because
many countries around the world are seriously lagging behind in fixing
their computer systems. He is also disappointed by the lack of global
leadership, pointing out that the U.N. only held its first conference
on the issue at the end of 1998.
Yardini, who is the Chief Economist and a Managing Director of DEUTSCHE
BANK SECURITIES (North America), predicts that the recession could begin
as early as the fourth quarter of 1999, if the public becomes alarmed
and takes precautions. For example, if stock prices fall sharply later
in 1999, the resulting loss in confidence could cause consumers to retrench
and trigger a recession. (JG)
Ed Yardini's Website: http://www.yardeni.com
Link: http://www.zdnet.com/enterprise/zdy2k/stories/0,6158,2209302,00.html
------------
PROTECTING TAX-DEFERRED INVESTMENTS FROM Y2K
(Source: Jim Lord, WESTERGAARD YEAR 2000, 1/18/1999)
While most analysts agree that the chances are good that Wall Street's
computers will be ready for Y2K, there is still significant concern
with utilities, telephones, foreign stock markets. This uncertainty
is likely to motivate many investors to avoid potential Y2K problems
by simply pulling their assets out of the stock market all together.
Since cashing out tax-deferred investments can invoke severe tax consequences,
many investors, to maximize the safety of their assets, are considering
a move into physical gold and silver, but there are many obstacles to
that strategy. The INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, for example, will only
allow one form of direct ownership: Gold and Silver Eagle coins minted
by the U.S. Treasury. Plus buying, insuring, shipping, handling, storing
and accounting for the coins is very labor-intensive, making ownership
cumbersome and expensive.
Y2K analyst Jim Lord has come up with a way to own gold and silver assets
without all this hassle: the CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA (CFC). CFC is a
closed-end gold and silver bullion holding company, meaning the company
has a fixed number of shares and requires that 90 percent of investment
assets must be held in the form of the physical metals.
In spite of its name, Central Fund is not a mutual fund, which typically
owns shares of somebody else's equity or debt. CFC doesn't depend on
anyone's promise of payment; they simply hold physical gold and silver
in a ratio of one ounce of gold to fifty ounces of silver. The gold
and silver bullion assets are stored in segregated areas within the
mechanically-operated treasury vaults of the CANADIAN IMPERIAL BANK
OF COMMERCE, the second largest bank in Canada. CFC is fully insured
by LLOYD'S OF LONDON against all forms of loss of its bullion holdings.
The CFC administrator retains hard (non-computerized) copies of all
records.
According to Jim Lord, the Fund has two small weaknesses. First, the
precious metals are kept in a bank vault and Y2K is a threat to the
banking system. In this case, however, the bank is simply being paid
to provide storage for the physical property. Second, CFC might not
have access to the assets for a period after Jan. 1, 2000, but Lord
figures that you are unlikely to lose them altogether.
If, after all this, you think CFC is for you, investing is as easy as
calling your broker and placing an order. (JG)
Link: http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Tip/Lord/lord9903.htm
------------
LESSONS FROM THE EURO CHANGEOVER
(Sources: Patrick O'Beirne, WESTERGAARD YEAR 2000, 1/26/1999; HET PAROOL,
2/81999, both via GARY NORTH'S LINKS AND FORUMS)
Last year, critical observers, pointing out that IT projects were rarely
delivered on time and bug-free, predicted that Y2K and the euro transition
would both be painful experiences. But in January 1999, industry observers
were surprised at how smoothly the transition to the euro went. Does
this mean Y2K transition will be easier than predicted as well? Y2K
analyst Patrick O'Beirne says no, and gives the following reasons:
1) The euro changeover is nothing like the Y2K project. The crucial
difference is that Y2K is a mass change project to remove date-related
defects; the euro is the implementation of new functionality. Add to
this the complexities of Y2K introduced by a fixed deadline, embedded
chips, and the lack of financial resources and trained personnel. Plus
the fact that the euro conversion was essentially restricted to a relatively
small portion of the world, and did not have the life-threatening global
implications of massive power failures, banks runs, loss of heat in
the dead of winter, transportation gridlock, food shortages, and an
incredibly-complicated interconnectedness.
2. There are still three years to go. On January 1, 1999, the changes
were essentially only on paper in the central banks and stock exchanges.
Significant problems are still anticipated when euro coins and bills
actually get into the hands of people on the street, and all financial
transactions in 11 European countries are transacted in the euro and
no longer in the national currencies.
3. It is likely that many problems were squashed internally. Nevertheless,
in a recent story, the Dutch publication HET PAROOL reported that European
banks have lost track of billions of guilders, because payments now
must run through a number of different computer systems and addresses.
ABNAMRO BANK, DEUTSCHE BANK, and RABO BANK confirm that they have been
forced to manually correct about 600 transactions a day, up from 100
before the euro changeover. The "Foreign Payments Correction Department"
of the Amsterdam branch of ABNAmro Bank is no longer able to keep pace
with the increased workflow, despite its workforce of 350 employees.
In the public sector, a number of alarming reports did come to light,
such as a systems crash at the French national post office due partly
to problems arising from the euro conversion. Riot police had to be
called to calm angry clients at the Marseilles branch of LA POSTE, after
they were unable to access their accounts.
4. Success was linked to multiple rehearsals (four rehearsal runs were
not uncommon) and well-managed projects. According to O'Beirne, Y2K
project managers who manage their process well, use good estimating
and tracking techniques, and go through at least three rehearsals of
their database conversions, regression tests, and future date tests,
"are in good shape for success." As for the rest...(JG)
Link: http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/International/pobeirne9904.htm
Link: http://www.parool.nl/nieuws/275006858.html
------------
DISPELLING THE RAILWAY MYTH
(Source: Bradley K. Sherman, DEJA NEWS, 3/5/1998 via the Y2K NETWORK)
The following are edited excerpts taken from a posting on the "comp.software.year-2000"
Forum in DEJA NEWS by Bradley K. Sherman, an employee with a major railroad:
"Back in the 19th century, railroads used steam locomotives, communicated
using telegraph, and had manned switch towers at each rail junction.
But times have changed. Today, railroads are heavily into computers.
For example, there are basically two types of locomotives in use today
on America's railroads:
1. 'Dumb' locomotives were mostly built in the 50s, 60s and 70s. You
start them up, yank on the throttle and the train begins to move. Nothing
hi-tech about them.
2. 'Smart' locomotives were built in the 80s and 90s and all of them
have micro-processors on board. You start them up, yank on the throttle
and the train starts to move. The on board computer uses a small radar
unit that looks down at the track and determines how fast the train
is moving, the grade the train is on and whether or not any of the locomotive's
wheels are slipping. If one of the wheels is slipping, the computer
reduces power to that wheel while continuing to apply full power to
all other wheels. This is why it takes only two of the new high-tech
locomotives to replace three or four of the older dumb locomotives.
"In the old days at each junction and crossover location, a man in a
switch tower using levers connected to rods and pulleys, lined switches
and cleared signals under the instruction of the train dispatcher through
telegraph. Nowadays, the old tower has been replaced with a trackside
box filled with relays and micro processors linked to the dispatcher
by telephone circuits, radio links or satellites. At the dispatcher's
end is a computer workstation showing his railroad territory. Everything
the dispatcher does is recorded (FRA requirement) and date stamped in
the standard MM/DD/YY format.
"Many lines are single track. Using signals via radio, the dispatcher
keeps the traffic flowing. Without a central authority to keep everything
running, nothing would move out of fear of meeting another train head
on. Going to a timetable system or token system would take weeks or
months to implement and would greatly reduce capacity of an already
overloaded railroad system.
"At one time, the 'man in the tower' kept an eye on all passing trains
for any defects that might cause a derailment. This was in addition
to the conductor riding in the caboose on the rear of the train. Now
that the towers and cabooses are all gone, the railroads have installed
trackside defect scanners that directly warn the train crew or dispatcher.
"At one time, there were hundreds of clerks to keep track of where railroad
cars were and on what train they were on. Today, these clerks have been
replaced by trackside scanners that 'read' magnetic tags on each car.
This information is feed directly by telephone lines to the railroad's
central computer.
"Also, let's not forget that massive amounts of diesel fuel are needed
to run all those trains. A Y2K problem in the oil industry could cause
shortages of diesel fuel.
"Saying today's railroads could continue to operate if the Y2K bug crashed
all their computers would be like saying the airlines could continue
to fly if the air traffic system crashed." (JG)
Link: http://www.dejanews.com/[ST_rn=ap]/getdoc.xp?AN=349794353
ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Y2K RESOURCES:
RESILIENT COMMUNITIES VIDEOCONFERENCE, PART 2
(Source: Amanda Butcher, RESILIENT COMMUNITIES PROJECT, 2/16/1999)
NORTHWEST REGIONAL FACILITATORS and WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION invite you to participate in the second videoconference of
the three-part Resilient Communities series: "Common Sense, Common Ground:
Preparing for Y2K," with futurist Robert Theobald and international
Y2K activist Cynthia Beal. The conference will be available via satellite
downlink on April 8, 1999 from 9:00 a.m. - Noon (Pacific Time) at a
cost of $10 U.S. per person.
The goal of this project is to view the millennium bug as a catalyst
for change. The first videoconference was broadcast to 100 communities
across North America on January 22, 1999. It featured a discussion between
Robert Theobald, and noted Y2K commentator Margaret Wheatley, author
of "The Simpler Way." Shifting global dynamics and new forms of leadership
for the new millennium were the topics.
Preparedness and sustainability practices will be the focus of the April
program. The third program in the series on May 27, 1999 will provide
ways people and communities are approaching the full spectrum of issues
relating to resiliency: from personal and family to community and the
ecology.
For more information on the Resilient Communities Project and videotapes
of the first program visit the Resilient Communities Website or contact:
Amanda Butcher, (509) 484-6733, "amandab@nrf.org".
Resilient Communities Website: http://www.resilientcommunities.org
------------
A SEMINAR FOR Y2K JOURNALISTS
(Source: Tom Atlee, 2/17/1999)
Reporting accurately and authoritatively on the millennium bug is one
of journalism's big challenges this year. Providing the tools needed
to do the job well is the focus of a daylong conference for journalists
at THE FREEDOM FORUM's Media Studies Center in New York City on Tuesday,
February 23. Faculty and speakers include leading experts on risk assessment
and preparedness such as: Dennis Grabow (MILLENNIUM INVESTMENTS), Ed
Yourdon ("Time Bomb 2000"), Dr. Robert Alloway (NATIONAL LEADERSHIP
TASK FORCE ON Y2K), Victor Porlier (CENTER FOR CIVIC RENEWAL), and Rick
Cowles ("Electric Utilities and Y2K").
This seminar is targeted for reporters and editors who need better background
information in order to cover the millennium bug story throughout 1999.
Attendance is limited to working journalists from print, broadcasting
and new electronic media. There is no registration fee, but you must
be pre-registered to attend. Register by phone: (323) 851-7372; by email:
"facs@facsnet.org"; or online: <http//www.facsnet.org>.
This conference is part of a continuing series of educational programs
on science and technology conducted by FACS in association with the
CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE FOR TECHNOLOGY. FACS is a non-profit educational
institution dedicated to improving public understanding of issues through
a more informed news media. FACS programs are interactive and do not
advocate points-of-view.
------------
LIST OF NONCOMPLIANT PRODUCTS
(Source: Y2K.LMI.ORG Website via GARY NORTH'S LINKS AND FORUMS)
Here is an exhaustive alphabetized list of noncompliant items posted
hidden away on a government-sponsored website. Comments Y2K analyst
Gary North: "Will all the users of these products find out in time?
Of course not. It would be nice if every manufacturer of each of these
products would post these warnings in plain sight." (JG)
Link: http://y2k.lmi.org/gsa/y2kproducts/noncompliant.cfm
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THE LIGHTER SIDE OF Y2K:
ORDERS FOR NEXT YEAR'S VOLKSWAGEN BEETLE SLUGGISH
(Source: Thomas Bruck, 2/17/1999, thanks to Ellen Cooper)
The "new and improved" version of the VOLKSWAGEN Beetle has so far been
a huge success -- the first production run was sold out before the new
model hit the streets in 1998, and the '99s also sold out in advance.
So given this popularity, officials at Volkswagen are scratching their
heads to explain the sluggish response to next year's model. It seems
that no one wants to get stuck with a Year 2000 Bug. (JG)
ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Copyright 1999 by NewHeavenNewEarth
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