NHNE Y2K Report 26
Sunday, May 16, 1999
"News,
Inspiration,
& Consumer Protection
for Spiritual Seekers"
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NHNE Y2K Report 26
Sunday, May 16, 1999
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A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY
"I'm in at least weekly contact with John Koskinen, the UN, and other
governments and companies. My take is that there is a false sense of
security, and that the situation is not quite as rosy as we would like
to have it, primarily because of some factors that are obscure and that
not many people understand. Our company and others such as STANDISH
GROUP have discovered over the years that about 50 percent of large
software projects either run late or are canceled. [However],
if you looked at the reported status of these projects 90 days before
the nominal delivery date, you would reach the impression that none
of them were going to run late, because they were all supposed to be
under control and moving right along. But, in fact, half of them don't
make it. We are at the point [with Y2K] where almost everybody
says everything is under control, but that does not mean that everything
is under control."
--- Capers Jones, Y2KTODAY, 5/10/1999 (See "Everything Is Not Under
Control" in this issue for more details)
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CONTENTS:
Y2K HEADLINES:
Clinton Administration Disputes Y2K Spending Report
National Guard: Y2K Communication Exercise A Success
PC Makers Form Y2K Alliance
Software Houses Dumping Non-Y2K Compliant Apps
Group to Monitor UK Food Supply Chain
Aviation Watchdog May Ban Airlines In Australia Over Y2K
Turkey Seeks Y2K Advice from Israel Electric Corporation
Channel Tunnel to Close for Y2K
Y2K GLITCHES:
Pilgrim Nuclear Plant Has Back-Up Generator Problems
Y2K Glitches Show Up In British Nuclear Plants
Seattle Times Classified Department Averts Potential Disaster
Y2K STORIES:
Special Senate Hearing on Y2K Community Efforts Set for May 25
America's Y2K Laggards
New Air-traffic Radar Systems Creating Havoc
Global Trade Connections Vulnerable to Y2K Threat
Startling Nuclear Statistics
Bennett Misquoted In Syndicated Column
Capers Jones: Everything Is Not Under Control
Why Are Most High-tech Execs Not Concerned About Y2K?
The Bean Theory: The Case for Individual & Neighborhood Preparedness
Y2K RESOURCES:
Medical Manual Gets Boost from Y2K Buyers
THE LIGHTER SIDE OF Y2K:
Y2K Puzzle
THIS WEEK'S NEWS SOURCES
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Y2K HEADLINES:
CLINTON ADMINISTRATION DISPUTES Y2K SPENDING REPORT
(Source: Orlando De Bruce, FCW, 5/10/1999)
The Clinton administration has denied recent accusations by the GENERAL
ACCOUNTING OFFICE (GAO) that some federal agencies have either misspent
or not properly tracked hundreds of millions of dollars allocated for
Year 2000 fixes (Y2K Report 25). The GAO report claimed that at least
18 agencies had used the Year 2000 funding to replace PCs and network
hardware, such as the AGRICULTURE DEPARTMENT (USDA) spending $8.5 million
for rural development to accelerate the replacement of PCs. Anne Reed,
Chief Information Officer at USDA, explained that the agency bought
the new PCs because the old ones did not have the power to accept a
Year 2000-compliant mission-critical application. "To deliver the program,
they not only had to upgrade the application, but the host [PCs]
had to accept the application." In response to the charge that nine
federal agencies did not keep track of spending, and three departments
-- USDA, State and Treasury -- refused to respond to GAO's requests
for information, Reed said her agency closely documents its Year 2000
supplemental-money spending. "I'll be more than happy to open the books
up for GAO." The STATE DEPARTMENT added it too had submitted "volumes
of information" to GAO. "GAO's characterization of State's cooperation
as not providing relevant information on Y2K cost tracking is incorrect."
The OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET (OMB) insisted that its Year 2000
funding process is closely scrutinized. "We have absolute confidence
that the process which exists monitors costs, expenditures and compliance
appropriately," said Linda Ricci, an OMB spokeswoman. Jim Kerrigan,
President of COLMAR CORP., a market research firm, speculated that agencies'
Year 2000 spending practices may be caught in a political battle. "I
don't think they are doing anything improper." (JG)
Link: http://www.fcw.com/pubs/fcw/1999/0510/fcw-newsy2kreport-5-10-99.html
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NATIONAL GUARD: Y2K COMMUNICATION EXERCISE A SUCCESS
(Source: David M. Bresnahan, WORLDNETDAILY, 5/10/1999)
The NATIONAL GUARD has completed the first ever nationwide test of a
backup communication system in preparation for possible Y2K-related
problems. The exercise, codenamed "Communications CPX," was conducted
to practice a full mobilization of all 480,000 members of the Guard
to prepare for possible consequences of the Year 2000 computer bug which
could cause major disruptions of power, telecommunications, transportation,
and banking. An alternative method of communication would be needed
if standard telephone service is not available. Using only a high-frequency
radio system powered by generators, command staff of the NATIONAL GUARD
BUREAU were able to make simultaneous contact with 96 percent of its
chain of command. The only glitches took place in Guam and in Hawaii,
but with some improvisation they were able to complete the exercise.
The event itself was surprisingly low key, in contrast to the controversy
whipped up by WORLDNETDAILY in January (Y2K Reports 11 & 12). (JG)
Link: http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_bresnahan/19990510_xex_national_gua.shtml
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PC MAKERS FORM Y2K ALLIANCE
(Source: Edward F. Moltzen, CMP MEDIA, 5/7/1999)
Nine computer hardware makers have formed an alliance to standardize
Y2K hardware compliance specifications and provide road-map information.
The alliance, made up of ACER, AMERICAN MEGATRENDS, COMPAQ, DELL, HEWLETT-PACKARD,
IBM, GATEWAY 2000, TOSHIBA and PHOENIX, is spurred in part by an effort
to ease Year 2000-compliance fears. "The question we asked was, 'With
less than eight months to go, how can we help PC users at this late
point?'" said John Archer, Director of Strategic Marketing for PHOENIX
TECHNOLOGIES, and Chairman of the PC Y2000 ALLIANCE. The organization
has created a website to act as an aggregation of common information
and guidance the hardware vendors had already been openly providing.
The website also contains instructions for determining whether PC hardware
is Y2K-compliant. "The alliance puts the full weight of the PC industry
behind the road map to Year 2000 readiness," said Marybeth Marcello,
Compaq's Manager for Y2K Marketing. "We wanted to provide reassurance
that nobody needs to stop, or start over, with a Year 2000-compliance
plan." While not official members, INTEL and MICROSOFT are also cooperating
with the new alliance. (JG)
PC Y2000 Alliance Website: http://www.pcy2000.org
Link: http://www.crn.com/dailies/digest/dailyarchives.asp?ArticleID=4698
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SOFTWARE HOUSES DUMPING NON-Y2K COMPLIANT APPS
(Source: Sylvia Dennis, NEWSBYTES, 5/7/1999)
INFOLIANT, a Year 2000 compliance tracking database service, has revealed
a worrying trend among software houses in recent weeks: dumping, rather
than updating, those packages which are still not Y2K compliant. According
to Infoliant, almost a third of the 604 compliance status changes detected
during April by the company's compliance tracker service were negative
as manufacturers disclosed previously unknown Y2K issues or simply announced
the discontinuation of support for non-compliant products. Kevin Weaver,
Infoliant Executive Vice President, said that the firm was initially
surprised by a sudden increase in the number of products changing compliance
status during March. "The results for April and the products currently
under review by our research team indicate that even more testing, patching,
and disclosure is coming from information technology manufacturers at
all levels." According to Weaver, the changing information makes the
task of preparing off-the-shelf products for the Year 2000 harder than
the company initially thought. (JG)
Link: http://www.cnnfn.com/digitaljam/newsbytes/130329.html
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GROUP TO MONITOR UK FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN
(Source: Bill Goodwin, COMPUTER WEEKLY NEWS, 5/13/1999)
Supermarkets and food manufacturers in the UK are planning to track
basic foodstuffs through the supply chain as part of a nationwide assessment
of the impact of the millennium bug. Consultants will trace key foods
from manufacturing plants to wholesalers to the supermarket shelves,
assessing the likelihood of Year 2000 failures at each stage. The study
follows industry concerns that panic buying could have a far greater
impact on the availability of food supplies than any Y2K failures. "The
retailers and manufacturers are going to be ready in time. But we need
to reassure people that it will be business as normal," said Tim Cooper-Jones,
Chairman of INITIATIVE 2000, the group of retailers and food companies
backing the scheme. The study will focus on key items such as bread,
cereals, milk and meats for full end-to-end evaluations. In the case
of milk, for example, the studies would include evaluations of bottling
plants, embedded chips within refrigeration systems and cold stores,
and the readiness of transport companies. Retailers believe the survey
will give a good indication of the impact of Y2K on other food supplies
which are likely to share much of the same distribution infrastructure.
The group aims to release its initial findings by July. (JG)
Link: http://www.computerweekly.co.uk/cwarchive/news/19990513/cwcontainer.asp?name=C11.html
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AVIATION WATCHDOG MAY BAN AIRLINES IN AUSTRALIA OVER Y2K
(Source: THE AUSTRALIAN/AAP, 5/6/1999)
According to the Australian CIVIL AVIATION SAFETY AUTHORITY, airlines
could be banned from flying into the country if they are found to be
at risk of the Year 2000 computer bug. Mick Toller, Director of Aviation
Safety confirmed that all airlines operating in Australia would be checked
for Y2K compliance in the next few months. Toller played down the risk
to air travelers, "There are not any significant issues that have been
identified other than in a few minor navigation systems in old aircraft
which are not safety-threatening." Chief executives of a number of major
airlines, including QANTAS, Australia's national carrier, have already
announced they will not fly across the new year. Bruce Gemmell from
the DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT lauded their decision, "If something actually
goes wrong I don't particularly want the CEO who has got the decision-making
capacity up in the air and uncontactable. I want him on the ground where
he can fix the problem." (JG)
Link: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/extras/007/4140016.htm
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TURKEY SEEKS Y2K ADVICE FROM ISRAEL ELECTRIC CORPORATION
(Source: David Hayoun, BUSINESS ARENA, (Israel), 5/10/1999)
Turkey's national electric corporation has approached the ISRAEL ELECTRIC
CORPORATION (IEC) seeking urgent consultation on the Y2K bug. IEC General
Manager Rafi Peled consequently asked two of the company's executives
to go to Turkey to learn more details about the assistance IEC is being
asked to provide. The Turks are interested mainly in project management
support and are not asking IEC to take responsibility for the consequences
of the Y2K bug. Peled recently initiated a special national forum of
infrastructure companies to discuss cooperation on the Y2K bug, an action
which has been roundly praised by Y2K experts. IEC has yet to make a
formal decision concerning the Turkish request. (JG)
Link: http://www.globes.co.il/cgi-bin/Serve_Archive_Arena/pages/English/1.3.1.9/19990509/1
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CHANNEL TUNNEL TO CLOSE FOR Y2K
(Source: SILICON Website)
The Channel Tunnel will be shut on News Year's Eve because of millennium
bug fears. From 8 p.m. on December 31 to 4 a.m. the following morning,
no passengers or freight will travel through the tunnel; instead, test
trains will be used, with full safety crews standing by. "The problem
is to do with the interface between our systems and those of the National
Grid and the equivalent in France," explained a spokesperson for EUROTUNNEL.
But Ian Hugo, Assistant Director of TASKFORCE 2000, claims that a possible
problem with the safety system could be the real reason for the closure.
(JG)
Link: http://www.silicon.com/public/door?REQUNIQ=926429048&6004REQEVENT
=&REQINT1=30135&REQSTR1=newsnow
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Y2K GLITCH WATCH:
PILGRIM NUCLEAR PLANT HAS BACK-UP GENERATOR PROBLEMS
(Source: Patrick Connole, Reuters, 5/13/1999)
According to NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (NRC) Chairman Shirley Ann
Jackson, the 670 MW Pilgrim nuclear plant in Plymouth, Mass. has had
repeated problems with their emergency backup diesel generators, which
are required to keep the facility safe in the event of Y2K blackouts.
The NRC said the plant's owner was working to solve the problem by adjusting
the temperature limit for the generators, improving air flows and increasing
the amount of diesel fuel it keeps on hand. ENTERGY NUCLEAR, a non-regulated
subsidiary of ENTERGY CORP., bought the Pilgrim plant for $80 million
in 1998. In the 1980s, BOSTON EDISON, the previous owner, spent about
$300 million to fix problems at the Pilgrim plant, after it was heavily
fined by the NRC. (JG)
Link: http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990513/
tc/utilities_yk_massachusetts_2.html
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Y2K GLITCHES SHOW UP IN BRITISH NUCLEAR PLANTS
(Source: L.G. Williams, IAEA, September 1998)
The fact that nuclear power plants are more analog than digital is used
by the industry to play down the threat of Y2K. Nevertheless, Y2K-related
problems at nuclear power plants do occur. The following examples of
date-related problematic systems found in British nuclear power plants
are from a paper by L.G. Williams, Director of NUCLEAR SAFETY DIRECTORATE
and Chief Inspector of the British NUCLEAR INSTALLATIONS INSPECTORATE,
delivered at a meeting of industry representatives in September, 1998
in Vienna:
Data Processing Systems: A problem was found with a monitoring and control
system which normally obtains its date and time from a radio clock signal.
When the signal was not unavailable, the systems would not accept "00"
or "2000" as a valid date. This could have led to the system becoming
degraded if parts of the system needed to be re-booted.
Security Systems: The access control systems failed due to excessive
error messages being generated on transition to Year 2000.
Emergency Plume Gamma Monitoring System: Historical trend information
did not appear correctly if the data spanned the transition.
Main Turbine and Main Boiler Feed Pump Governors: The version of the
operating system used in this equipment had a problem which prevented
it from being re-started in the Year 2000.
Fuel Flask Leak Detection: The software that compared the current and
calibration due date caused an illegal syntax error and halted the processor
when it did this check on 1/1/1999.
Water Chemistry Control System: A water treatment plant control and
chemical monitoring system was found to work incorrectly in the Year
2000.
Activity in Low Level Waste Drums: A system which monitored the activity
of low level waste stored in drums would not operate after December
31, 1999. In addition, it did not recognize February 29, 2000.
Maintenance Scheduling Computer: A maintenance scheduling computer was
not Year 2000 compliant and required modification.
Emergency Indication: A Remote Emergency Indication Center had a number
of date-related non-compliances which needed to be rectified. If this
was not done, the efficient handling of emergencies would have been
in jeopardy. (JG)
Link: http://www.iaea.org/ns/nusafe/y2000/uky2ksta.htm
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SEATTLE TIMES CLASSIFIED DEPARTMENT AVERTS POTENTIAL DISASTER
(Source: Joe McGarvey, THE SEATTLE TIMES, 3/1/1999)
In 1997, a team of engineers from software manufacturer ATEX MEDIA SOLUTIONS
INC. discovered that the 25-year-old mainframe which runs the classified
advertising system for THE SEATTLE TIMES, was likely to quit working
at the end of the millennium. To compound problems, they also found
that extensive customization to the original system made it impossible
to fix the Y2K bugs. This ominous news meant the entire mainframe, which
also hosted the paper's billing, accounting and prepress systems, would
have to be replaced. Given that classified ads generate approximately
half of the paper's revenue, Kurt Dahl, Vice President of Information
Technology, realized that he needed to move quickly and chose PWI TECHNOLOGIES,
the company which helped the Times launch its website in 1995, to deliver
a solution. PWI replaced the newspaper's DIGITAL mainframe with a new
SUN E10000 server that is Y2K-compliant, capable of supporting an upgraded
version of the Atex editing program, houses 22 UltraSPARC processors,
18 GB of RAM and .75 TB of storage, and will support multiple databases
and systems that will be used to create a data warehouse. Although the
new system has now been in place at the paper since the beginning of
the year, "it will take us well into 2000 to transfer all the systems,"
says Dahl. (JG)
Link: http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?VAR19990301S0022
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Y2K STORIES:
SPECIAL SENATE HEARING ON Y2K COMMUNITY EFFORTS SET FOR MAY 25
(Sources: Paloma O'Riley, CASSANDRA PROJECT, 5/12/1999; Liza K. Christian,
ROGUE RIVER Y2K TASK FORCE, 5/13/1999; Gary North, GARY NORTH'S Y2K
LINKS AND FORUMS, 5/14/1999)
A special Senate hearing on Y2K community efforts has been called for
May 25 in Washington D.C. Witnesses will include Y2K analyst Paloma
O'Riley (founder of THE CASSANDRA PROJECT), Ed Yourdon (well-known programmer
and best-selling author of "Time Bomb 2000"), Liza Christian (former
Executive Director of THE ROGUE RIVER Y2K TASK FORCE), and Michael Nolan
(city administrator of Norfolk, Nebraska). Each panelist will be given
five minutes for oral testimony.
Written testimonies are also being solicited from other prominent community
preparedness spokespeople, including NHNE's David Sunfellow, Director
of the SEDONA Y2K TASK FORCE. Along with reporting on how NHNE and the
Sedona Y2K Task Force has worked with Y2K, Sunfellow plans to include
data from the nation's first grassroots community preparedness survey
in his written testimony. To date, over 100 people from all over the
U.S. have participated in this survey, including many of the nation's
most well-known grassroots organizers. The survey, which was created
by Tom Atlee of the CO-INTELLIGENCE INSTITUTE, was widely circulated
among Internet-based Y2K mailing lists. It will be housed on a special
website and is expected to be finished next week.
The hearing seeks to gather answers from the community witnesses and
written testimony to the following questions:
- What has been your experience as you've worked to convey information
and prepare your community for potential Y2K disruptions?
- What are your achievements, both in awareness and contingency planning?
- What areas haven't you had success? Why?
- What has the media's role has been to help/hinder your efforts? What
ways could they be more effective?
- What are your goals and objectives in the months remaining?
Subsequent to the oral testimony, a committee of senators will question
the panel of witnesses. Liza Christian says, "It is incumbent upon us
to expose them in a compelling way to our concerns, be they in the oral
or the written testimony, so that they will be prompted to ask a lot
of cogent questions."
When Y2K analyst Gary North, who is never at a loss for words, learned
about the special Senate hearing, he had this comment: "The Senate's
Special Committee on the Y2K Technology problem [plans to] hear
testimony on May 25 from local organizations. The representative from
the Rogue Valley will receive five minutes -- yes, 300 seconds!...I'd
give more information, but after thinking about the implications of
this, I have to get to SAM'S CLUB to buy another 100 pounds of pinto
beans."
[By the way, all the expenses for this trip -- flight, lodging,
transportation, meals -- are borne by the participants themselves. -JG]
Link: http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/4681
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AMERICA'S Y2K LAGGARDS
(Source: BUSINESS WIRE, 5/7/1999, thanks to Sherry J. Stultz)
Some of America's largest corporations are among the furthest behind
in fixing their computer systems for the millennium, according to WEISS
RATINGS, the only provider of Y2K readiness ratings on banks, insurance
companies, and Fortune 1000 companies. Three companies -- WAL MART,
INTEL, and CONAGRA -- received a Weiss Y2K rating of "low," indicating
potentially serious delays. Eleven of the nation's 50 largest companies
received a Y2K rating of "below average," including America's two largest
corporations, GENERAL MOTORS and FORD, as well as TEXACO, CHEVRON, BELL
ATLANTIC, MOTOROLA, PEPSICO, KROGER, SBC COMMUNICATIONS, UNITED TECHNOLOGIES,
and COMPAQ. Only three of the largest 100 nonfinancial companies in
the country merited a Weiss Y2K rating of "high": COSTCO, AMERICAN STORES,
and AMR.
Martin Weiss, Chairman of Weiss Ratings commented: "We've known for
some time that small and mid-sized companies would have difficulties
in their preparations for the new millennium. But the poor progress
made by so many of America's largest companies comes as quite a shock,
implying potentially serious disruptions in the operations and profits
of at least some of these companies." Overall, the 538 nonfinancial
companies rated by Weiss have budgeted $26 billion for Y2K-related preparations,
but have spent only $13.6 billion, barely half of the funds allocated.
This indicates widespread delays and the likelihood of a major eleventh-hour
rush to catch up as the end of the year approaches.
Weiss is particularly concerned about the utilities and telecommunications
industries, "not only because they are essential to our everyday lives,
but also because the majority of the companies in these industries tend
to be lagging behind." Among the 61 electric and gas utilities receiving
a Weiss Y2K Rating, 69 percent received "below average" or "low" Y2K
grades, while only 5 percent received "high" ratings. Among 19 telecommunications
firms rated, 68 percent received "below average" or "low" grades, with
none receiving a "high" grade.
"One of the greatest dilemmas we face," added Weiss, "is the continuing
lack of public disclosure. Over 34 percent of the Fortune 1000 companies
we reviewed have failed to disclose sufficient information on their
Y2K progress upon which to base a rating. The disclosure issue is even
worse among the nation's 11,000 banks and 4,000 insurance companies.
Without this information, the public is more likely to assume the worst
and make hasty decisions with their savings and investments." The accuracy
of Weiss Ratings reports has been confirmed by the U.S. GENERAL ACCOUNTING
OFFICE (GAO) and national consumer organizations. (JG)
Weiss Ratings Website: http://www.weissratings.com
Link: http://infoseek.go.com/Content?arn=BW1059-
19990507&qt=Y2K&sv=IS&lk=noframes&col=NX&kt=A&ak=news1486
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NEW AIR-TRAFFIC RADAR SYSTEMS CREATING HAVOC
(Sources: Matthew L. Wald, NEW YORK TIMES, 5/6/1999; Y2KNEWSWIRE, 5/7/1999;
Jon Hilkevitch, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 5/7/1999; REUTERS, 5/7/1999)
Malfunctioning air-traffic radar systems have been taken out of service
at Chicago's two major airports after causing serious delays recently.
The old system called "HOST" was in the process of being replaced with
a Y2K-compliant upgrade called "ARTS 6.05" when the new computer failed
as it was linked to a new type of display screen for the controllers.
HOST automatically took over, but it, too, promptly malfunctioned. After
the two computer systems failed, a third system was put into use, but
since that system did not provide as much data, air traffic controllers
had to double the spacing between planes to 20 miles.
This snafu came just two weeks after a discovery that new FAA radar
control systems were slower than the ones they were replacing -- even
after an investment of a billion dollars and several years of effort.
Henry Brown, who represents New York-area members of the PROFESSIONAL
AIRWAYS SYSTEM SPECIALISTS, complained, "The [FAA] rushed this
system into service, against our wishes, because they want to say we've
got another 40 percent of our equipment Y2K compliant." FAA spokesman
Tony Molinaro countered, "We've made a top priority of correcting the
glitches in the ARTS 6.05 software program in Chicago and returning
it to service as soon as possible, but no later than June 30" -- the
date by which the FAA has pledged to have all its systems free of Year
2000 bugs. He admitted that the "FAA does not have a fallback strategy
if the kinks in ARTS 6.05 are not worked out by June 30." When asked
what the FAA planned do if such a situation occurred, Molinaro said,
"I wouldn't even want to speculate on it." HOST is not Y2K certified,
meaning hardware and software using date-dependent information could
shut down computers or generate inaccurate data on Jan. 1. Similar problems
have created havoc recently at La Guardia, Newark and Philadelphia airports
as well.
In a related story, FAA Chief Jane Garvey has booked an AMERICAN AIRLINES
flight from Washington to Dallas on New Year's Eve and will be in the
air when the Greenwich Mean Time clock that controls air navigation
rolls over to the Year 2000. Her move is an attempt to allay public
fears about flying through the date rollover. "We appreciate the administrator's
confidence in us," said Chris Chiames, a spokesman for American Airlines,
which has spent $200 million on renovating its own computers. (JG)
Link: http://www.y2knewswire.com/19990507.htm
Link: http://chicagotribune.com/version1/article/0,1575,ART-28177,00.html
Link: http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990507/tc/yk_reservations_1.html
------------
GLOBAL TRADE CONNECTIONS VULNERABLE TO Y2K THREAT
(Sources: Bob Cohen, YEAR 2000 OUTLOOK NEWSLETTER, 5/7/1999; Sen. Christopher
J. Dodd, Press Release, 4/22/1999)
The millennium bug could throw a large rock into the world's economic
pond, according to a new report issued by Commerce Department's INTERNATIONAL
TRADE ADMINISTRATION (ITA). The report, entitled, "The Year 2000 Problem
and the Global Trading System," avoids discussions of individual country
readiness, focusing instead on the intricate set of trade relationships
which bind one nation to the next.
The stakes in this game are enormous: One-fifth of global output involves
international trade. The U.S., for instance, exports over 20 percent
of everything it makes, and counts on commerce with its trading partners
to support 12 million American jobs. "The international trading system,
with its complex web of suppliers, distributors, customers, and transportation
links, is supported by a critical infrastructure of products and services,"
the report notes. "The most important components of the infrastructure
are energy production and distribution facilities, transportation modes,
communications channels, and financial networks. These sectors are highly
computerized and interdependent and are particularly sensitive to dates
for the smooth exchange of goods and services. These characteristics
render them especially susceptible to Y2K-related problems. Breakdowns
in any part of the trade support structure could slow or halt shipments
of key imports needed to keep factories working, hospitals functioning,
food in continuous supply, and people employed."
Y2K could impact other U.S. trade vulnerabilities too, like minerals.
The report notes that the U.S. is "totally dependent" on imports for
such commodities as bauxite and alumina, columbium, natural graphite,
manganese, and mica. More than 50 percent of minerals like platinum,
tin, zinc, tungsten, and cobalt come from overseas. "Temporary disruptions
in the supply of some of these materials could affect automobile manufacturing
(catalytic converters and pollution control systems), the petroleum
and construction industries (drill bits), and the electronics sector
(cathode ray tubes and electronic capacitors)," the report says.
According to the ITA: "By the end of 1999, it is estimated that the
U.S. will consume 19.3 million barrels of oil a day, about half of which
is imported....The petroleum industry is highly dependent upon information
technologies in every aspect of its business operations, including production,
maintenance, finance, communications, security, safety, and delivery.
Embedded microchips are widely used in the industry's distributed control
systems." To further highlight the seriousness of this aspect of the
issue, consider these edited excerpts from a statement by Sen. Christopher
J. Dodd during a hearing to investigate the potential impact of Year
2000 on oil imports:
"The oil industry is highly dependent upon maritime shipping. Oil tankers,
for example, depend on reliable on-board navigation, communication and
safety systems, all of which are vulnerable to Y2K problems. In 1998,
SHELL OIL examined one of its crude oil carriers, which was built in
1996. Y2K testing revealed failures in seven areas, including radar
system mapping, ballast monitoring and ship performance monitoring.
According to Shell, "Not one of these failures would stop the ship,
but they might if they all happened together." Overall, when Shell assessed
their fleet, it found approximately 3,000 date-sensitive embedded chips
on its 50 vessels. The highly automated functions make it difficult
for a small crew to manually operate the ship in an emergency."
"With the exception of North America and Northern Europe, the actual
Y2K readiness of the international ports remains a virtual unknown.
When a ship arrives in port, Y2K-related failures could prevent cargo
from being unloaded and oil from being pumped out of tankers. Y2K difficulties
in ports could include the failure of the giant cranes used to offload
containers from ships and could also create congestion. According to
the INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, one oil company found that a dockside
crane refused to operate because an embedded chip determined that it
was overdue for a technical inspection."
"Some companies, such as British Petroleum (BP), are taking a very proactive
approach to Y2K. BP is very influential in the shipping business and
is the world's third largest user of oil carrying vessels. In May 1998,
BP surveyed 650 companies from which it chartered tankers. BP made it
clear that failing to respond to the questionnaire would result in termination
of charters with the oil company. The response was disappointing. Half
of the companies that BP had used in the previous two years were unable
or unwilling to disclose the Y2K readiness of their vessels. Beginning
in January 1999, BP started refusing to employ vessels that could not
offer an assurance of Y2K readiness. But while BP and other companies
might be able to obtain Y2K ready charter vessels, they cannot make
international ports compliant."
"The oil industry is working hard to solve its Y2K problems and is trying
to achieve Y2K readiness by September 1999. However, Y2K failures in
maritime shipping and foreign ports still pose serious threats to the
flow of oil and our economic well being." (JG)
Link: http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/news/pr042299.html
Full ITA report: http://y2k.ita.doc.gov/y2k/y2k.nsf/
------------
STARTLING NUCLEAR STATISTICS
(Sources: ENVIRONMENT NEWS SERVICE, 5/6/1999; Declan McCullagh, WIRED,
4/30/1999)
A total of 434 nuclear power plants are now operating around the world,
according to data reported to the INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY
(IAEA) "Power Reactor Information System." Overall nuclear power plants
provide about 16 percent of the world's electricity production. Eighteen
countries rely upon nuclear power plants to supply at least a quarter
of their total electricity needs; here are the top 12:
Lithuania, 77.2 percent
France, 75.8 percent
Belgium, 55.2 percent
Sweden, 45.8 percent
Ukraine, 45.4 percent
Slovak Republic, 43.8 percent
Bulgaria, 41.5 percent
Republic of Korea, 41.4 percent
Switzerland, 41.1 percent
Slovenia, 38.3 percent
Japan, 35.9 percent
Hungary, 35.6 percent.
To handle Y2K computer concerns related to the world's nuclear power
plants, member states have requested the IAEA act as a clearing-house
for diagnostic and remediation actions being taken to make these facilities
Y2K ready. In response, the IAEA has established a special project to
address the relevant nuclear safety concerns of the Y2K problem on nuclear
power plants and research reactors.
The most recent quarterly report from the NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY
COUNCIL (NERC) revealed that one-third of the nuclear plants in the
U.S. will not be finished with Y2K repairs in time to meet the industry's
self-imposed summer deadline of July 1, 1999. The group advises that
hospitals; telephone companies; and gas, water, and sewage facilities
"should review their emergency power supply provisions and procedures."
(JG)
Link: http://www.wired.com/news/news/email/explode-infobeat/politics/story/19419.html
Y2K readiness, by country: http://www.iaea.org/ns/nusafe/y2000/countinf.htm
Link: http://ens.lycos.com/ens/may99/1999L-05-06-06.html
------------
BENNETT MISQUOTED IN SYNDICATED COLUMN
(Sources: Joe Bauman, DESERT NEWS ARCHIVES, 5/9/1999; John Hamre, DoD
Website, 2/22/1999)
Staff members for Sen. Robert Bennett have criticized a nationally-syndicated
column for misquoting the senator. The column by Jack Anderson and Jan
Moller claimed that the U.S. military is preparing to take action in
case social disruptions accompany Y2K computer failures (Y2K Report
25). "[This] was confirmed to us recently by Sen. Robert Bennett
(R-Utah), who chairs a special Y2K Technology Problem Committee," the
column stated. The article went on to quote Bennett that the Y2K problem
is everywhere and nowhere at once, and that there is not enough time
to understand where all the problems are going to surface so we must
be practical and prepare for the worst. "This column is a complete fabrication,"
charged Don Meyer, spokesman for the SENATE SPECIAL COMMITTEE ON THE
Y2K TECHNOLOGY PROBLEM. "The quote was supplied...only as a way of describing
the nature of the [Y2K] problem," Meyer said. "We never confirmed
that the U.S. military is planning a sophisticated social response network."
In response to the charges, Moller, the editor of the column, double-checked
and agreed that it was incorrect in saying that Bennett had "confirmed"
the reports. "It was an editing error on my part." The actual reporting
was by a team member named Kathryn Wallace, who got the information
about Y2K military plans independently of any information from Bennett.
Moller said that when he was working with the information supplied by
Wallace, "I assumed that Bennett was talking about the military part,
which he was not. [He] was referring to the general problem
of the Y2K."
The columnists, however, still "stand by the accuracy of the story"
about military preparations. Their position seems to be confirmed by
a memo from John Hamre, Deputy Secretary of Defense. Here are some edited
excerpts from the first in a series of policy memos designed to ensure
that the U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE (DoD, the Department) has the ability
to effectively respond to the many and varied demands that may be placed
upon it during the Y2K date transition period:
"Efforts in the public and private sectors have resulted in great strides
toward Y2K compliance. Despite these efforts, it is possible that localized
system failures will occur, and that the possibility for more widespread,
systemic problems, both domestically and internationally, cannot be
ruled out. Accordingly, the Department is taking prudent action to ensure
its ability to meet its national security responsibilities and, consistent
with those responsibilities, to respond to requests for assistance from
civil authorities both domestically and overseas throughout the Y2K
date transition period."
"Past DoD responses typically have been applied to localized acute situations,
most of which have not been simultaneous. By contrast the Y2K problem,
has the potential to involve a large number of events that occur over
broad geographic areas, within a short time frame. [Given] the
broad, near-simultaneous, systemic nature of potential problems during
the Y2K date transition, a set of criteria that more clearly establishes
the Department's focus and response to domestic and foreign requests
for military assistance [is needed]. Accordingly, the following
priorities will be adhered to in responding to domestic emergencies
and for foreign assistance throughout the Y2K transition period (September
1, 1999 to March 31, 2000):
1. Essential national security missions
2. Immediate response situations
3: Domestic public health and safety
4: The economy and the nation's quality of life"
"Within the U.S., local commanders may undertake immediate, unilateral,
emergency response actions that involve measures to save lives, prevent
human suffering, or mitigate great property damage, only when time does
not permit approval by higher headquarters. Overseas, immediate response
may be undertaken when time is of the essence and humanitarian considerations
require action. Except for [these] immediate responses, requests
for DoD support will be considered only if submitted through the FEDERAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY or appropriate offices of the DEPARTMENT
OF STATE. THE NATIONAL GUARD will continue its traditional role of providing
military support to civil authorities through their respective state
governors, and will simultaneously ensure its ability to respond to
national security requirements." (JG)
Link: http://www2.army.mil/army-y2k/depsecdef_dod_civil_support.htm
Link: http://www.desnews.com/cgi-bin/libstory_reg?dn99&9905100342
------------
CAPERS JONES: EVERYTHING IS NOT UNDER CONTROL
(Source: Scott Johnson, Y2KTODAY, 5/10/1999)
Capers Jones is the founder of SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY RESEARCH and a
leading expert on the economic impact of the Y2K problem. Here are some
edited excerpts from a recent Y2KTODAY interview:
"I'm in at least weekly contact with John Koskinen, the UN, and other
governments and companies. My take is that there is a false sense of
security, and that the situation is not quite as rosy as we would like
to have it, primarily because of some factors that are obscure and that
not many people understand. Our company and others such as STANDISH
GROUP have discovered over the years that about 50 percent of large
software projects either run late or are canceled. [However],
if you looked at the reported status of these projects 90 days before
the nominal delivery date, you would reach the impression that none
of them were going to run late, because they were all supposed to be
under control and moving right along. But, in fact, half of them don't
make it. We are at the point [with Y2K] where almost everybody
says everything is under control, but that does not mean that everything
is under control."
"As of this year, about a third of the problems that are occurring are
being found in software that nominally was repaired, tested, and put
back into service. Another issue is that for the last 50 years about
seven percent of all software updates have accidentally inserted new
errors. Some of these fresh bugs are troublesome in their own right.
Given the fact that we are missing dates and injecting new problems,
I think it is very unlikely that we will end up with all of the dangerous
problems fixed at the end of the century. The industry average for finding
and fixing any kind of bug is 85 percent, leaving 15 percent behind.
[And, in addition, while], the number of [embedded]
chips that need to be replaced is not as big as we first thought, replacing
them remains one of the most difficult parts of the Year 2000 problem,
because you have to take them out and replace them. And if the vendor's
gone out of business, or it's in an offshore oil rig, it is not an easy
trick."
"The federal government is doing a reasonable job now, [but]
they started a couple of years to late. I blame Gore more than Clinton
for not being a leader in this situation, because of the impeachment,
Clinton had other things on his mind. One thing that I find troublesome
[is that] for the last couple of years, Ken Starr's budget has
been roughly ten times bigger than John Koskinen's. I think the government
has grossly misspent on the independent counsel stuff and grossly underspent
on the Year 2000 work. I've been told by people who know him that Al
Gore is afraid of [the Y2K threat] because he figures that it
will wipe out his election [chances] in 2000. He was the poster
boy for the Internet and high technology. He should have taken the lead
in trying to solve it. By backing away and not saying anything about
it, he has lost the confidence of the high-tech community that should
have been his main supporters. On the state and municipal level, the
bigger government entities are pretty active and energetic, [but]
I'm very concerned about the smaller communities."
"[While] Jon Arnold, who publishes a weekly status report on
the electric utility industry, is pretty candid, and Koskinen is pretty
open, given his position [as Chair of the PRESIDENT'S COUNCIL ON
THE YEAR 2000 CONVERSION], I'm very troubled by the industries that
don't have any kind of consolidated look at their Y2K status -- natural
gas, trucking, shipping, governments -- because all of them are pretty
much lagging. [On the international front], Western Europe,
which should be in very good shape, devoted too many resources to the
euro, [which has] a lot of problems, some of them big: currency
conversion errors to billions of dollars, funds transfers to the wrong
bank. Italy is just getting started; they've been devoting too many
resources to the Year 2000 [Jubilee]. As far as Eastern Europe
goes, I suspect that they don't have a clue. It also looks like the
Pacific Rim is not going to be in very good shape, nor are South America
or Africa." (JG)
Link: http://www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp?feature=true&id=1418
------------
WHY ARE MOST HIGH-TECH EXECS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT Y2K?
(Source: Benny Evangelista & Jon Swartz, THE SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE,
5/3/1999, thanks to Dan Drasin)
According to a recent survey by the SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE, many Silicon
Valley executives are not concerned about the Y2K threat and blame the
media for doomsday forecasts. Here are some edited responses to the
questions of how concerned they are about the Y2K threat and what they
plan to be doing on the last day of the year:
Scott McNealy, CEO, SUN MICROSYSTEMS: "I will probably be asleep as
soon as all three boys go to sleep (about 9:30) and will wake up and
change Y2K-compliant diapers."
Jim Clark, co-founder of NETSCAPE COMMUNICATIONS, SILICON GRAPHICS and
HEALTHEON: "I consider [Y2K] a complete ruse promulgated by
consulting companies to drum up business."
Larry Ellison, CEO, ORACLE: "Y2K is going to be a problem, but nowhere
near the problem some people seem to think it will be. I will be ready,
the company will be ready, and things will be OK."
Jim Barksdale, former CEO, NETSCAPE COMMUNICATIONS: "I'm not concerned
about it. Actually, one of the biggest dangers we face over the next
six months is the press hyping Y2K and turning it into a crisis situation
for the public."
Robert Kotick, Chairman and CEO, ACTIVISION: "Worried? Not at all. I
think it's entirely invented by a division of MICROSOFT."
Graham Spencer, co-founder, EXCITE: Is not planning on traveling at
the beginning of the year out of fear of scheduling snafus and delayed
flights. "I'm going to buy bottled water and canned food; I'll have
extra batteries for flashlights and radios; and I'll probably withdraw
some extra cash. I probably won't buy a backup generator; I'm definitely
not buying a gun or moving into a bunker."
Ed Dilworth, CEO, ARNOLD INGALLS MORANVILLE: "My wife's gonna have a
baby in six weeks. I don't care about anything but that. The actual
event in January -- pfft."
Sunil Paul, CEO, BRIGHT LIGHT TECHNOLOGIES: "Personally, I'm planning
to party like it's, well, you know. But I might carry a spare flashlight
with me, perhaps one that doubles as a party favor. The hysteria that
has people hiding in bunkers in mountains is overdone. It's not the
end of civilization -- it's a computer bug."
Do these dismissive responses from the captains of technology indicate
that they are confident that the millennium bug has been squashed? William
Ulrich, co-author of "The Year 2000 Software Crisis: Challenge of the
Century" and President of TACTICAL STRATEGY GROUP, has another explanation:
top corporate executives are too far removed from trying to fix the
Y2K problem to become overly concerned about its potential effects.
"You get to a certain point in life where you think you're immune. The
only thing you're really worried about is where your stock price sits.
The people who least appreciate what's going on are the people who live
in Silicon Valley. Their world is OK, so the rest of the world must
be OK." He claims that the deeper you delve into the trenches of the
Y2K problem, the more people you find concerned about the threat. At
a recent conference of Fortune 1000 chief information officers and Y2K
project leaders, for example, a poll showed the majority of attendees
feared moderate to serious problems ahead. (JG)
Link: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1999/05/03/BU42286.DTL
----------
THE BEAN THEORY: THE CASE FOR INDIVIDUAL & NEIGHBORHOOD PREPAREDNESS
(Source: Sally Strackbein, Y2KKITCHEN Website)
The Y2K community widely advocates community preparedness. But, according
to Y2K analyst Sally Strackbein, it isn't enough -- individual and neighborhood
preparedness is also imperative. Here are some edited excerpts from
her essay about why community preparedness alone will not work:
"I frequently hear individual preparedness efforts labeled 'hoarding.'
We, who are worried enough to be making plans for our families and neighborhoods,
are labeled 'survivalists.' Individual and neighborhood preparedness
is about planning for the survival of the neighborhood. If the families
in each neighborhood survive, the community will survive. Individual
and neighborhood preparedness is not about 'heading for the hills.'
It is about taking responsibility and building cooperation."
"This paper advocates survival through diversity. Our world has become
increasingly dependent on computers and, for the first time, many of
them will experience bugs almost simultaneously. This is the first time
we have had advance warning of a catastrophe of this magnitude. We need
to prepare in as many ways as possible: individual preparedness, neighborhood
preparedness, community preparedness, city preparedness, state preparedness,
national preparedness and world preparedness. Diverse preparation by
diverse people is essential."
"The following illustrates why it is absolutely imperative for the middle
class to prepare for the onslaught of Y2K disruptions. Let's use Fairfax
County, Virginia [and cans of beans] as examples:
"Beans are an inexpensive and readily available source of nourishment.
They provide enough food value to keep a person alive for a while. Canned
beans don't need to be cooked to be edible. An institutional size can
of pork and beans holds 3,250 calories of food and weighs 7 pounds,
2 ounces. A 10-year-old child needs about 2,000 calories per day; this
number works for the average adult too.
"Let's compare two scenarios: unprepared individuals and neighborhoods
as compared to semi-prepared individuals and neighborhoods:
"Sardine Scenario: The average school in Fairfax County serves a population
of 3,901 people, including adults and children. Assume all need shelter
at the school because everyone believed the Y2K optimists and made no
preparations. This is called the "Sardine Scenario" because it provides
for six times as many people as the schools were designed for, crowded
like sardines.
1 Day 3 Days 14 Days
People to feed 3,901 3,901 3,901
Cans of beans 2,400 7,200 33,600
Water (gal) 3,901 11,703 54,614
If we assume that community preparedness is required and that the disruptions
will last for only two weeks (a conservative estimate), Fairfax County
(population 913,012) would have to rent 1,404 20-foot cargo containers
to store the required beans to take care of the whole population.
Semi-Prepared Scenario: Let's assume the majority of families have prepared
for themselves. Assume the number of people sheltered at this school
equals the number of students who attend the school.
1 Day 3 Days 14 Days
People to feed 629 629 629
Cans of beans 387 1,161 5,418
Water (gal) 629 1,887 8,806
"The above scenarios do not include toilet paper, blankets, diapers,
tooth paste or any other essentials. Neither does it make arrangement
for human waste disposal, required in case of water shortage."
"While neighborhood cooperation is preferable, individual families,
in isolation, stocking their pantries with extra food and water is far
better than not having them prepared. Most average middle class families
have the resources to prepare if they buy just a little bit extra each
shopping trip to the grocery store for the rest of 1999. The better
prepared the middle class family is, the smaller the number of people
who will need shelter in public facilities. Therefore, individual family
preparedness is good for the community. Food stored in individual homes
does not need storage space in public facilities. The same holds true
for water."
"It is imperative to alert everyone, especially middle class families,
as soon as possible that they need to begin preparing NOW! Plan for
the community to take care of those unable to prepare for themselves
and urge those who can to prepare. This is how we can truly avoid panic."
(JG)
Link: http://www.y2kkitchen.com/html/y2k bean theory.html
ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Y2K RESOURCES:
MEDICAL MANUAL GETS BOOST FROM Y2K BUYERS
(Source: Monica Eng, THE MODESTO BEE/CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 4/12/1999)
The HESPERIAN FOUNDATION has been selling its Third World medical manual,
"Where There Is No Doctor," at a brisk pace for more than 25 years.
But no one at the nonprofit publishing house was ready for the avalanche
of orders that they suddenly started receiving last December, when people
from the fully-developed world began calling with requests and monthly
sales quadrupled. "We couldn't figure out what was going on," said Todd
Jailer, Hesperian publications coordinator. "So we started asking people
when they called with their orders and finally we realized it was all
related to Y2K." It seems that the manual, which explains medical procedures
from diagnosing parasites and treating malaria to delivering babies
and dressing gunshot wounds, has made it onto highly-recommended lists
among some Y2K preparedness groups. Y2K preparedness guru, Paloma O'Riley,
recommends it on her CASSANDRA PROJECT Website, "I think its a good
book to have, not just for Y2K, but if you are ever away from medical
facilities."
The classic public health text has meant survival for thousands in the
Third World since the early 1970s, according to officials from the WORLD
HEALTH ORGANIZATION (WHO) and the U.S. PEACE CORPS. It was then that
a group of health workers in rural Mexico began stapling together hand-copied
pages of health tips that they then distributed to local villagers who
had no access to doctors. By 1973, biologist and public health worker
David Werner turned these packets into a full-fledged book written in
Spanish. By 1977 an English language version was published and today,
with three million copies translated into 85 languages, it is the most
widely-used public health manual in the world. Its success has spawned
such offshoots as "Where Women Have No Doctor," "Where There Is No Dentist,"
"A Book for Midwives," "Disabled Village Children" and "Helping Health
Workers Learn."
Werner's original intention in writing the book was to create a manual
that would allow those underserved by medical professionals to educate
themselves about basic health. "The book was given its title, not because
it tells you what to do until the doctor gets there, but what to do
[when] the doctor is never going to get there," said Jane Maxwell,
co-author of the current edition of the book. Because many places without
doctors also have little or no literacy, Werner and subsequent co-authors
have geared the book to reading levels between fourth and sixth grade.
(JG)
Hesperian Foundation Website: http://www.managingdesire.org/Hesperian/Hesperian.html#anchor1069997
Link: http://www.modbee.com/living/story/0,1155,80664,00.html
ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
THE LIGHTER SIDE OF Y2K:
Y2K PUZZLE
(Source: K. Jackson Anderson, THE DAILY HERALD (Everett, Wash.), 4/30/1999)
"Why is it possible, less than one year from the end of the world as
we know it, to buy a two-year subscription to newsletters and magazines
sponsored by those who are predicting the downfall of civilization?"
--- Marney Mason, Y2K Project Manager for the U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS,
Seattle district
Link: http://www.heraldnet.com/Stories/99/4/30/10854497.htm
ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
THIS WEEK'S NEWS SOURCES:
The stories in this week's NHNE Y2K Report were drawn, in part, from
the following news sources:
SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS:
http://www.sangersreview.com/
YEAR 2000 INFORMATION CENTER:
http://www.year2000.com/articles/NFarticles.html
GARY NORTH'S LINKS AND FORUMS:
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/latest_.cfm
Sheri Nakken (Y2K NETWORK):
http://www.nccn.net/~wwithin/wncy2k.htm
Y2KNEWSWIRE:
http://www.y2knewswire.com
ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Copyright 1999 by NewHeavenNewEarth
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