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"What is now plain is that the emission of
greenhouse gases, associated with industrialisation and strong
economic growth from a world population that has increased
sixfold in 200 years, is causing global warming at a rate
that began as significant, has become alarming and is simply
unsustainable in the long-term. And by long-term I do not
mean centuries ahead. I mean within the lifetime of my children
certainly; and possibly within my own. And by unsustainable,
I do not mean a phenomenon causing problems of adjustment.
I mean a challenge so far-reaching in its impact and irreversible
in its destructive power, that it alters radically human
existence."
--- Tony
Blair, 9/14/2004
------------
"Ocean,
land, and atmosphere scientists at some of the world's
most prestigious organizations have uncovered new evidence
over the past decade suggesting that the plausibility
of severe and rapid climate change is higher than most
of the scientific community and perhaps all of the
political community is prepared for. If it occurs, this
phenomenon
will disrupt current gradual global warming trends,
adding to climate complexity and lack of predictability.
And
paleoclimatic evidence suggests that such an abrupt
climate change could begin in the near future."
...........
"With
at least eight abrupt climate change events documented
in the geological record, it seems that the questions
to ask are: When will this happen? What will the impacts
be? And, how can we best prepare for it? Rather than:
Will this really happen?"
..........
"There
is a debate in newspapers around the globe today on the
impact of human activity on climate change. Because economic
prosperity is correlated with energy use and greenhouse
gas emissions, it is often argued that economic progress
leads to climate change. Competing evidence suggests
that climate change can occur, regardless of human activity
as seen in climate events that happened prior to modern
society.
" It's
important to understand human impacts on the environment
-- both what's done to accelerate and decelerate (or
perhaps even reverse) the tendency toward climate change.
Alternative fuels, greenhouse gas emission controls,
and conservation efforts are worthwhile endeavors. In
addition, we should prepare for the inevitable effects
of abrupt climate change -- which will likely come regardless
of human activity."
...........
"...even
the most sophisticated models cannot predict the details
of how climate change will unfold, which regions will
be impacted in which ways, and how governments and society
might respond."
...........
"Human
civilization began with the stabilization and warming
of the Earth's climate. A colder unstable climate meant
that humans could neither develop agriculture or permanent
settlements. With the end of the Younger Dryas and the
warming and stabilization that followed, humans could
learn the rhythms of agriculture and settle in places
whose climate was reliably productive. Modern civilization
has never experienced weather conditions as persistently
disruptive as the ones outlined in this scenario. As
a result, the implications for national security outlined
in this report are only hypothetical. The actual impacts
would vary greatly depending on the nuances of the weather
conditions, the adaptability of humanity, and decisions
by policymakers."
--- "An
Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for
United States National Security," By Peter Schwartz
and Doug Randall, October 2003
------------
"Human
activities have become a major source of environmental
change. Of great urgency are the climate consequences
of the increasing atmospheric abundance of greenhouse
gases and other trace constituents resulting primarily
from energy use, agriculture, and land clearing. These
radiatively active gases and trace constituents interact
strongly with the Earth's energy balance, resulting in
the prospect of significant global warming."
---
American Meteorological Society, "Climate
Change Research: Issues for the Atmospheric and Related
Sciences", 2/9/2003
-----------
"Human
activities are increasingly altering the Earth's climate.
These effects add to natural influences that have been
present over Earth's history. Scientific evidence strongly
indicates that natural influences cannot explain the
rapid increase in global near-surface temperatures observed
during the second half of the 20th century."
---
American Geophysical Union, "Human
Impacts on Climate", 12/2003
------------
"With
the possible exception of another world war, a giant
asteroid, or an incurable plague, global warming may
be the single largest threat to our planet. For decades
human factories and cars have spewed billions of tons
of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and the climate
has begun to show some signs of warming. Many see this
as a harbinger of what is to come. If we don’t
curb our greenhouse gas emissions, then low-lying nations
could be awash in seawater, rain and drought patterns
across the world could change, hurricanes could become
more frequent, and El Niños could become more
intense.
"On
the other hand, there are those, some of whom are scientists,
who believe that global warming will result in little
more than warmer winters and increased plant growth.
They point to the flaws in scientists’ measurements,
the complexity of the climate, and the uncertainty in
the climate models used to predict climate change. They
claim that attempting to lower greenhouse emissions may
do more damage to the world economy and human society
than any amount of global warming.
"In
truth, the future probably fits somewhere between these
two scenarios."
--- "Global
Warming" By John Weier, NASA's Earth Observatory
(4/8/2002)
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